Keir Starmer Odds Suggest 99% Chance Of Him Being Elected Prime Minister
Betting sites believe Sir Keir Starmer has a 99% chance of being named the UK’s next prime minister when Labour win a majority in Thursday’s general election.
Sir Keir has led Labour since 2020 and his party commands a 20-point lead in the polls heading into Thursday's election.
Labour have successfully avoided any major media disasters over the six-week course of the election campaign, with Sir Keir now viewed as the “steady” option in the wake of Conservative chaos.
Political betting sites have for months assumed that the former director of prosecutions would succeed Rishi Sunak as prime minister when the next election was held.
Their odds plummeted after Mr Sunak announced the campaign in the rain outside Downing Street.
Since then the bookies have continued to cut their Starmer odds to such an extent that he is now practically guaranteed the job.
Labour look on course to win a mega majority thanks to dwindling Conservative support and the First Past The Post system, which favours bigger parties over the likes of Reform UK and the Greens.
Amazingly, on the eve of the election date, a Tory minister conceded defeat and outlined his expectation that Sir Keir would deliver a bigger majority than Tony Blair in 1997.
And yet, punters haven’t completely piled on the Labour leader like the bookies have.
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Sir Keir Starmer Odds
Betting data suggests just 38% of all bets in the ‘UK next prime minister’ market have fallen on the Labour leader.
Nigel Farage, by contrast, carries a quarter of the bets and Rishi Sunak 16%.
The reason for this is Sir Keir’s ultra-low price, which is driving bettors to the wider-marked outsiders such as Mr Farage and Mr Sunak, who are both priced at 33/1 on betting apps.
Sir Keir, by contrast, is as short as 1/100 with BetUK to be the next PM. That means punters have to risk ￡100 just to get a pound back in profit.
No wonder they are looking for outside options just in case something happens to Labour over the final few hours of the campaign.
Will Starmer Win The Election?
In reality, though, Sir Keir is on course to avoid any major media gaffes at this point and cruise into Downing Street.
Labour’s manifesto hasn’t necessarily caught the world alight but voters are desperate for change away from 14 years of Tory rule.
Mr Sunak has tried attacking Labour on tax and immigration, yet his insistence that the country is better off under his stewardship just hasn’t got through to voters.
Tory apathy, a growing support for Reform, and a push from the Liberal Democrats to target Middle England seats means Labour could gain a mega majority and the Conservatives left with fewer than 100 MPs.
Labour are 1/33 with new betting sites to win this election and secure the majority the party needs to enact its manifesto pledges.
Sir Keir will need to move fast, too. There is plenty of scepticism around Labour. Passion for the party isn’t as big as 1997, and FPTP means plenty of Reform voters are to be left disappointed this summer.
In fact, Labour could win more seats than Tony Blair in 1997 yet earn fewer votes than under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.
Not that this matters to Starmer. The soon-to-be prime minister has plenty to be getting on with.
The UK’s public services are under immense strain, the NHS is operating at crisis levels, relations with Europe are at an all-time low, and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East seem a long way from ceasing.
Sir Keir will need to present himself as a capable, decisive prime minister to cover for his low personal approval ratings.
His semi-robotic style and serious demeanour don’t exactly inspire voters. Yet he is the antithesis of Boris Johnson, who was mainly style without substance.
But that’s something to worry about tomorrow. Right now, Starmer just needs to keep his head down and get the keys to No 10.
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