Betting Opens On Joe Biden Completing Full Term Of Presidency
Betting sites believe Joe Biden has a one-in-three chance of quitting the US presidency before his first term is up, as Democrats reel from the news he will not seek re-election this November.
Mr Biden has finally ended weeks of speculation into his viability to challenge Donald Trump at the ballot box this autumn by announcing he will not top the Democratic ticket.
His party is now scrambling to unite behind a new presidential candidate, with Kamala Harris the favourite.
Yet Mr Biden is not free from scrutiny just yet. A string of Republicans are demanding the president steps away from his duties now.
The argument goes that if Mr Biden isn’t fit for office in four months from now, how can he be fit for office right now?
This has caused new betting sites to ponder whether the president could cede power to VP Harris before the election.
And it seems like there’s a growing possibility that Mr Biden won’t see out his first term.
Joe Biden Odds
According to betting apps, Mr Biden has a 30% chance of losing his job before November. Those odds of 9/4 are dramatically high for a democratically elected president of a stable western nation.
However, they highlight the uncertainty bookmakers and punters have around Mr Biden’s health.
Mr Trump has persistently called him “Sleepy Joe” for years but the full extent of his health issues only came to light during a disastrous TV debate for the president this spring.
Since then, pressure from the Republicans and then from Democrats for him to quit has ratcheted up. On Sunday, Mr Biden finally announced he would not seek re-election.
But he is still the president for now.
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Biden Odds Flip
Mr Biden’s fate seemed to have been sealed for some time. Since that TV debate the political betting sites have steadily been improving Ms Harris’ presidential odds, and worsening her colleague’s.
All the while, Mr Trump’s odds of winning the presidency fell to 4/6 – a price that carries a 60% probability.
With Mr Trump leading his adversary in the nationwide polls and across the majority of swing states, it was evident that something had to give on the Democratic side.
Mr Biden’s decision to quit the race gives the Dems hope of clinging on to power. Even if they do lose to Mr Trump’s MAGA juggernaut, there is hope among Democrats that they might at least be able to secure a majority in the House or Senate.
Bookmakers have now wiped their Biden odds for re-election. Instead, the focus is on who will challenge Mr Trump.
Ms Harris is the favourite at BetUK, priced at 2/1. Then there is Michelle Obama out at 16/1. They appear the only viable options for the Democratic nomination, as the party seeks to unite around one candidate.
Mr Trump, who survived a failed assassination attempt on July 13, has seen his odds improve even further. He is now 4/9 (69.2%) to win the presidency.
That is a remarkable price for a political figure who looked destined to be shunned from his party following the January 6 riots, and who is now a convicted felon.
Still, American politics is in unpredictable times and that’s reflected in the betting markets.
Bookmakers usually give the incumbent president a healthy lead in the odds heading into a re-election campaign but Mr Biden has trailed his adversary for the best part of three years.
In fact, Mr Biden has never really recovered his odds or his poll numbers since the US withdrew troops from Afghanistan in the autumn of 2021.
Now the focus flips to Ms Harris. She is a very different candidate to Mr Biden in terms of profile and voter base, but the Republicans will seek to paint her in the same light.
After all, they’ll argue she’s supported what they see as a disastrous presidency.
Ms Obama could also be in the mix for the Democratic candidacy but that seems unlikely at this stage.
For now, the narrative is set for a Harris vs Trump showdown in November that could dramatically shape American and global politics for years to come.
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