Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?
The 30-man shortlist for the Ballon d’Or has been announced and there are six England internationals up for the most prestigious individual award in world football.
Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice and Cole Palmer are all in the frame to be named the world’s best player in the 2023/24 season.
For the first time since 2003, neither Lionel Messi nor Cristiano Ronaldo have made the list, so there will be a new name on the trophy which will be presented at the Theatre du Chatelet in Paris on October 28.
Real Madrid forward Vinicius Junior continues to lead the way on the best betting sites, but Rodri is not far behind after his performances helped Spain secure a record-breaking fourth European Championship.
Bellingham had been Vinicius Jr's main contender, having helped Real Madrid to a 15th European Cup and Champions League title in June, but failure to win the European Championship final against Spain means he has fallen behind the two main contenders.
Despite Brazil's exit from the quarter-finals of Copa America, UK bookmakers still have winger Vinicius Jr as the odds-on favourite to go on and win the main award that Messi claimed for an eighth time in his career in 2023.
Which player will land the prestigious award next month? Gambling.com looks at the main candidates and their Ballon d'Or odds.
Ballon d'Or 2024 Odds
Footballer | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
Vinicius Jr | 4/9 | |
Rodri | 2/1 | |
Jude Bellingham | 20/1 | |
Dani Carvajal | 25/1 | |
Lamine Yamal | 40/1 | |
Kylian Mbappe | 40/1 | |
Lautaro Martinez | 50/1 | |
| Erling Haaland | 66/1 | Bet365 |
Toni Kroos | 80/1 | |
Phil Foden | 100/1 | |
Nico Williams | 100/1 | |
Harry Kane | 150/1 |
Vinicius Junior Still Leads The Way
Vinicius Jr was the 8/15 favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or after being in the right place at the right time to score Real Madrid's second goal to seal a 2-0 win over Dortmund in the Champions League final at Wembley in June.
But despite a lacklustre Copa America campaign with Brazil, the 24-year-old forward's odds have barely budged at 4/9.
The winger was very much in Bellingham’s shadow during the domestic season and was a 25/1 shot back in April, but he still heads the market on new betting sites to land the prestigious accolade largely down to his performances for Real Madrid.
Ballon D'Or Betting: Rodri Remains Second Favourite
Rodri reminded everyone of his ability to score crucial goals when netting the equaliser that set his country on their way to a 4-1 win over Georgia in the round of 16 at Euro 2024.
The Spanish star was available at 10/1 heading into the final, and despite playing just 45 minutes against England, he was named player of the tournament as Spain were crowned champions of Europe.
The 28-year-old midfielder also enjoyed another successful campaign with Manchester City, playing a crucial role as they were crowned Premier League champions for a fourth successive year.
As a result of his success this summer, Rodri can be backed at 2/1 with Betway to win the Ballon d'Or.
Bellingham Misses Out On Fairytale Ending
Jude Bellingham (20/1) scored two of England's first three goals at Euro 2024, including a wonderful overhead kick in the dying seconds of their round of 16 tie with Slovakia.
England went on to win 2-1 and after the game, Bellingham was asked who writes his scripts. He replied: "I do."
Bellingham helped the Three Lions reach the European Championship final, but there was to be no fairytale ending as Spain deservedly ran out 2-1 winners.
The 21-year-old, who was also named Champions League young player of the season, scored 23 goals in 42 appearances for Real Madrid last season as Carlo Ancelotti's side claimed La Liga title, 10 points clear of arch rivals Barcelona.
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Carvajal Climbs The Market
Four months ago, you would have struggled to find Dani Carvajal's name in the market to win the Ballon d'Or.
But, scoring the opening goal in the Champions League final against Borussia Dortmund and helping Spain to Euro 2024 glory has propelled the full-back into the conversation.
Defenders rarely win this prestigious individual award but with odds of 25/1, keep an eye on Carvajal as a potential outsider.
Yamal Might Have To Wait For Ballon d'Or
At 17, Lamine Yamal has a very bright future ahead of him, which might include several Ballon d'Or awards.
He might have to settle for the Kopa Trophy, which is awarded to the best young player in world football.
Yamal, who scored five goals for Barcelona last season, netted the equaliser for Spain in their Euro 2024 semi-final victory over France and is 40/1 to win this year's Ballon d'Or.
Mbappe's Ballon d’Or Odds Begin To Drift
Kylian Mbappe is now way down the ladder in the race for the Ballon d’Or and it’s not hard to see why.
The Champions League was the ultimate ambition for him with PSG, but a 2-0 aggregate defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the semi-finals ended their chances of European glory.
Mbappe has already won the World Cup with France, but that triumph was only good enough to earn him the 2018 Kopa Trophy. Had France beaten Argentina in the 2022 final then he would surely have won the Ballon d’Or ahead of Messi.
The French forward is now a Real Madrid player, which will significantly improve Mbappe's chances of winning future Ballon d'Or awards.
Mbappe can be backed at 40/1 for this year's Ballon d'Or on football betting sites.
Ballon D'Or Odds: Martinez Enters The Picture
Lautaro Martinez scored the winning goal at Copa America as Argentina lifted the trophy for a record-breaking 16th time in July.
The Inter Milan striker slotted home an extra-time winner against Colombia as his side retained the title.
Martinez also won the Golden Boot for being the top scorer of the tournament with five goals, so it has been another exceptional year for the striker.
Domestically, Martinez was also in great form as the most prolific scorer in Serie A with 26 goals which went a long way in helping Inter Milan win the Scudetto for a 20th time.
Having won international and domestic trophies last season, it's understandable that Martinez is considered a dark horse at 50/1.
Haaland Odds Reflect Voting Issues
Erling Haaland is, by most people’s reckoning, the most fearsome footballer on the planet. He is a deadly finisher, can lead the line on his own, and is a terror for defenders.
He has never won the Ballon d’Or and never came close to winning the Kopa Trophy.
There are a few reasons for this. The first is that he will almost certainly never achieve the international success that Messi, Ronaldo and previous winners like Fabio Cannavaro and Luis Figo enjoyed in their careers.
Haaland isn’t winning a World Cup, European Championship or Nations League with Norway.
The second is he’s at Manchester City. The vote of 100 journalists (cut from 170) usually focuses more on the continent. City aren’t looked upon favourably elsewhere in Europe purely because of their financial clout.
Haaland, who scored City's first league goal of the season in their 2-0 win at Chelsea, won the treble in the 2022/23 season and still didn’t pick up the 2023 award because Messi won the World Cup.
After losing out to Real Madrid in the last eight of the Champions League and Manchester United in the FA Cup final, Haaland’s odds have drifted way out to 66/1.
Haaland's City-team-mate Phil Foden is 100/1 after winning the Premier League and helping England reach the Euro 2024 final.
Kroos Drifts After Germany Exit
Toni Kroos' club career came to a close at Wembley as he helped Real Madrid beat Dortmund in the final of the Champions League.
It was his sixth winners' medal in that competition and he has retired from the sport as one of the most decorated players in European football.
This resulted in the midfielder shortening to become the 9/1 third favourite on betting apps but his odds have since lengthened following Germany's quarter-final defeat by Spain at Euro 2024..
The 34-year-old is a 80/1 shot to win the accolade.
Williams Has Wow factor
Nico Williams has entered the conversation thanks to a series of excellent performances at Euro 2024.
The Athletic Bilbao winger scored two goals at the tournament and was named player of the match in the final during which he struck the opener against England.
Williams had earlier scored and provided an assist in the 4-1 group-stage victory over Georgia, as well as completing a 100% pass rate – the first player to achieve the feat at the tournament.
After an excellent tournament, it was no surprise to see Williams priced at 28/1 in the Ballon d’Or odds, but, since the announcement was made, his odds have drifted to 100/1.
England Run Gave Kane A Glimmer
Just when we were beginning to write off Harry Kane's chances of winning the Ballon d'Or, he popped up with a crucial penalty for England in their semi-final clash with the Netherlands.
Kane still had a lot of work to do to close the gap on the market leaders, but after losing out to Spain in the final at Euro 2024, his chances of winning the award are now slim.
It was commendable that Kane stayed at Tottenham as long as he did but the voting process for the Ballon d’Or used to heavily favour trophies, and still does to a large extent.
Now at Bayern Munich, Kane (150/1) missed out on a Bundesliga title in his debut season and was minutes away from making a Champions League final. But he was named in the competition's best XI for the season.
Despite floundering in the race for the title, Kane dominated on the goalscoring front and he is 150/1 with Bet365 for the personal accolade. He never once got into the top three of the Ballon d’Or votes while at Spurs, but with 44 goals in 45 matches for Bayern Munich last season, 2024 could still offer plenty.
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