UK betting sites have adjusted their next Conservative party leader odds as all six candidates vie for support in the first round of voting this month.

Kemi Badenoch remains the frontrunner to lead the Conservative party, with Robert Jenrick following closely behind.

The politics betting odds then suggest James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat have a realistic outside chance of being named leader by Tory party members later this autumn.

But it appears as though Dame Priti Patel and Mel Stride have run their course, and may not get through the first round.

The Conservatives are taking their time to find a new leader in the wake of July’s heavy election defeat to Labour, which ended 14 years of Tory government.

Rishi Sunak remains the stand-in leader for now but the former Prime Minister has announced he will quit once a successor is found.

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Betting apps have been running odds on who will replace Sunak for months, and only now has the list whittled down to six serious candidates.

Tory MPs will initially vote to cut six names down to four, who will state their case at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham between September 29 and October 2.

The Parliamentary Party will then reduce the number to two between October 9 and 10 and the ballot will close on the last day of the month, before the winner is announced on November 2.

Who Will Replace Sunak?

Predicting who replaces Sunak as the leader of the opposition is particularly tricky because of the make-up of Tory members. It is the opinion of these 172,000 Conservative party members, not its MPs or wider voter base, that decides the contest.

That means bookmakers and punters can’t rely on nationwide opinion polling or media coverage to determine who will win the race.

The four remaining members will need to convince a traditionally more right-wing subset of the Conservative voter base that they are the right choice.

It could prove to be a brutal finger-pointing battle, but which candidate is in pole position to reunite a fractured party according to online bookmakers? 

Here are the six candidates to keep an eye on according to political betting sites.

Kemi Badenoch 

Ms Badenoch had been tipped for the Tory leadership long before July's election result. 

The former housing minister is outspoken and at times brash. Her manner chimes well with Conservative members but not always with the wider public.

Ms Badenoch is still a raw politician compared to some of her contemporaries, but she could certainly prove a problem for Labour.

The biggest issue is whether the wider Tory party, and indeed the country, would get behind her in an election.

She has a net favorability rating of -22, although that won’t affect her chances here. The view of Conservative members doesn’t accurately reflect the wider population.

Ms Badenoch is the narrow favourite at 13/8 with new betting sites to win the contest. Those odds come in from 2/1 since she launched her campaign.

Her improved odds appear to have come at the expense of Dame Priti Patel, who is now practically out of the race. 

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Robert Jenrick 

Robert Jenrick’s presence in the race is the perfect example of how a candidate’s chances of winning the Tory leadership can quickly flip. 

Early polling suggested he was favourite for the job after Mr Sunak announced he was quitting.

Yet his star has already fallen after he said anyone heard shouting “Allahu Akbar” on London streets “should be arrested immediately”. 

That sort of rhetoric may play to a certain crowd but it won’t win elections.

Mr Jenrick is popular among his fellow MPs and could well get into the final four. He is currently 7/4 with Betfred.

James Cleverly 

James Cleverly’s odds have wobbled over the past few weeks as bookmakers figure out how realistic his chances of success in this contest are.

He was once a big outsider but his cabinet experience means he has the support of plenty of Tory MPs. A recent Techne survey also found he is the top pick among members.

Recognisable and popular with the Conservative base, Cleverly is a shoo-in to get through the first stage. Making the final two is more complicated though.

He has to position himself between the extremes of centre-right Tugendhat and more right-leaning Ms Badenoch. Even then, Jenrick might command that space.

Cleverly’s price is bouncing around 5/1 with William Hill and remains quite volatile.

Tom Tugendhat 

An impassioned speech about the need for a strong Conservative party to bat away the lure of far-right populism helped Mr Tugendhat’s odds fall from 20/1 to 5/1 in recent weeks. 

His high-profile campaign launch at the start of September focused on an apology to voters for the recent Tory infighting that cost the party the election. 

He has flirted with the far-right of his party by saying he would seek to pull the UK out of the European Court of Human Rights – a headline-grabber for Brexiteers.

However, that price may have shrunk too far, with punters now betting against him to such an extent that his odds sit at 7/1 with Coral.

Mr Tugendhat is the centre-left option that many Tory MPs would like to see get the job.

His leadership would likely mark a return to traditional Conservatism and offer centrists a more genuine option between him and Sir Keir Starmer.

However, there is a debate on which way the Tories will turn following their dreadful electoral defeat. 

Turn left and seek to capture the centre ground with someone like Mr Tugendhat, or shift further right with a candidate like Ms Badenoch?

That’s what the contest will ultimately boil down to when members cast their votes in September.

Dame Priti Patel 

Is Priti Patel making a comeback? In recent weeks she’s been addressing her record as home secretary and distancing herself from the last government. 

This ‘strategic patience’ is now paying off with a leadership campaign that seeks to unite the party.

Untainted by Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak’s time in office, the backbencher has set enough distance between her time in the cabinet and the present day for people to give her a chance.

She’s been seeking the approval of various Tory groups and has fine-tuned her immigration arguments.

All she needs now is wider approval in the public sphere to build momentum heading into this leadership race.

That’s happening too. Speaking on GB News and writing for the Telegraph doesn’t happen from nowhere. 

Ms Patel is pushing for the leadership and her odds have drifted to 20/1. 

She’s may be an outsider in the betting markets but the latest Techne poll suggested she was second-favourite among party members. And that’s what counts in this election.

Mel Stride

Mr Stride is viewed as the outsider of the six at 40/1 with Betfred.

The 62-year-old MP for Central Devon was a close ally of Mr Sunak and believes “broad appeal” is the key to success rather than a shift to the right.

Mr Stride has held several ministerial roles over the years, including leader of the House of Commons and financial secretary to the Treasury.

The former work and pensions secretary insists Tories have “substantially lost the trust of the British people” and he is confident he can win back the voters.