US House Election Betting Tips: Democrats Majority Against Republicans
UK betting sites expect the Democrats to win a majority in the House of Representatives at November’s upcoming election, despite the polls suggesting the race will go down to the wire.
All 435 congressional districts are up for grabs this autumn as America votes for a new federal government while also deciding its new president.
Kamala Harris may be beating Donald Trump in the betting odds right now, but the Republicans are expected to win control of the Senate later this year.
A GOP-majority House and Senate would cause a big headache for Harris, should she be elected. If Trump were to secure the presidency then he would have a tremendous amount of power to wield, until at last the 2026 midterms.
With so much media attention focused on the presidential race, the battle for seats in Congress is sometimes overlooked.
Yet new betting sites have started to release their political odds for the US House election and, contrary to the Senate odds, are leaning towards the Dems.
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US House of Representatives Odds
According to Kwiff the Democrats have a 62% chance of winning a majority in the House this autumn.
Those odds of 8/13 have been shrinking in recent days as momentum swings towards the Democrats.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have shifted out to 5/4 (44% probability), which still has them in a competitive place two months out from the vote.
Who Will Win House Majority?
The polls believe there are 21 toss-up seats, while additional data suggests as many as 105 seats are “unsafe” or worse.
The Democrats are sweating on districts like Michigan 7 and Michigan 8, with Elissa Slotkin and Dan Kildee both retiring.
Don Davis isn’t sitting comfortably in his North Carolina 1 district as polls suggest a one-point Republican lead, while Washington 3 (Marie Gluesenkamp Perez) could be a surprise swing to the GOP.
The Republicans, meanwhile, are fretting over districts like Nebraska 2 (Don Bacon), New York 4 (Anthony D’Esposito), and Oregon 5 (Lori Chavez-DeRemer) that could easily turn blue.
Predicting what happens in the House during an election night isn’t easy. With so many seats up for grabs, many districts almost go unnoticed – especially when there’s a presidential election that dominates the media cycle.
But that’s not to say pollsters and punters can’t make a rational call on the outcome.
One of the big issues that affected midterm voting in 2022 was abortion. President Joe Biden was expecting to lose control in both the House and the Senate as Republicans became re-energised following the 2020 election defeat, and Trump began pushing candidates into contested districts.
The GOP were expected to dominate Congress but the pro-choice vote came out in force and denied a number of Trump appointees a seat.
The Dems lost the House but managed to hold power in a 50/50 Senate thanks to VP Harris’ deciding vote.
Bookmakers are expecting a similar backlash against Trump’s appointees and anti-abortion candidates again. After all, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade means women’s reproductive rights have become a major issue for November’s election.
It might not swing the presidential vote but it could certainly affect the House vote.
No wonder pollsters haven’t yet settled on who will win a House majority. The GOP appear to have more safe seats but are expected to win fewer toss-up districts.
So far the betting backs the Dems but those odds could change significantly between now and election day.
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