Tanya Stevenson's US Open golf tips: Scheffler looks unstoppable at Pinehurst
Tanya Stevenson's US Open Betting Tips:
- Scottie Scheffler To Win (6pts) - 3/1 With Bet365
- Tom McKibbin Top 10 (0.5pts Each-Way) - 20/1 With BetMGM
- Martin Kaymer Top LIV Golfer (0.5pts Each-Way) - 35/1 With BetVictor
- Tom McKibbin To Win First-Round Three-Ball (1pt) - 13/10 With Bet365
- Emiliano Grillo To Win First-Round Three-Ball (1pt) - 5/2 With Bet365
Scheffler The Man To Beat
Scottie Scheffler is in the zone. He has been a phenomenon for some time now and seeing his current price of 3/1 with betting sites to win the US Open gives me the impression that for whatever reason he hasn’t totally endeared himself to onlookers.
Maybe he isn’t charismatic enough or doesn’t communicate in a manner that captivates us, but to use an old cliche, he lets his golf do the talking.
He has a strong mentality and everything in his repertoire to deal with Pinehurst No. 2, one of the more punishing and frustrating US Open courses.
Normally it's good to draw plenty from Bay Hill in the lead-up to this particular major but Muirfield Village was confirmation enough of who was ready for the US Open.
A totally different psyche needs to be drawn on for this major, whether watching it or playing in it.
Payne Stewart won here in 1999 with a score of one under par, Michael Campbell was level when winning in 2005 and although Martin Kaymer found his way to -9 in 2014, he was eight shots clear of the field and only two other golfers were under par.
In fact, 10 years ago when the US Open was last played at Pinehurst, the course was brutal for round three. Of the 67 players who were left (and remember the cut was for those on +5 or better) only seven shot par or better.
I always like checking out the technicalities and there is one change from 2014 which will see ultradwarf bermudagrass on the greens as opposed to bentgrass. Perhaps, if possible, the greens are going to run even faster.
A high toleration level to a bogey here or there, great touch around the greens and excellent putting will be at a premium - the big booming hitters need not apply.
Scheffler has the required outward nonchalance to dismiss unforced errors.
Not many champions absorb triple-bogeys within their victories as he did in his penultimate round at the Memorial Tournament. His demeanour is another of his strengths and something which drives him further clear as world number one.
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DeChambeau Expected To Toil At Pinehurst
The LIV players had their frailties exposed in the USPGA Championship at Valhalla. Yes, Bryson DeChambeau was runner-up but he lacks the finesse that will be required when the lightest of touches on the green moves the ball 10 feet or more.
I’ve even checked out a price for Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka to miss the cut.
It’s the temperament of the latter which worries me. A couple of bogeys and he seems to drop his shoulders these days, plus it always seems to be everyone else’s fault, contrary to the fact that he’s holding the club.
Even when Rory is flying he cannot match Scheffler - in fact no-one can, but this is where I go back to Bay Hill. He shot a first-round 73 and the second-round 70 was only saved because he had six birdies to counteract the four bogeys.
His final round of 76 was 10 shots worse than winner Scheffler and only six of the 58 remaining players shot worse than him. I envisage there will be bogeys in everyone’s rounds.
The par threes, of which there are four, tend to be the culprits and it will be necessary to leave behind any hurt walking off the green to the next tee. The majority won't be able to do that as this type of course isn’t presented to them regularly.
Matt Fitz The Bill For Three-Ball Success
There was a long list of about a dozen golfers outside of Scheffler that I started to look at in the alternative markets, providing their 2024 stats coming into this major were showing consistency or improvement.
Matt Fitzpatrick’s final-round 69 at Muirfield Village last week shone like a beacon considering he won the title a couple of years ago at Brookline.
Being paired with Will Zalatoris and Tiger Woods is hardly a positive as play will be slow. They are playing off two tees anyway but the gallery following Woods is another factor Fitzpatrick will have to deal with, but despite that, he should win the first-round three-ball at Evens with Bet365.
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Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
Kaymer Could Surprise In Top LIV Golfer Market
Previous at Pinehurst is a massive plus which brings me to Martin Kaymer.
He was the emphatic victor here 10 years ago. There has been a glimmer of hope in his play on the LIV tour recently and checking the market to be Top LIV player he is value in my mind as an each-way prospect at 35/1 with BetVictor, who are offering three places.
Another who has been here before is Tom McKibbin, albeit at the 2015 Kids Golf World Championship. But, he knows the course, is thrilled to be returning and you can feel it in all he has written.
He has had a solid 2024 on the DP World Tour and played well in his European Open defence in which he tied for eighth.
McKibbin showed that this is his time of the year, so I’ve had a little each-way interest in him each-way finishing in the top 10 (20/1 with BetMGM) and top 20 (15/2 with Betway), plus he is in the top Irishman market, for which he is 17/2 with golf betting sites.
He tees off early too so he won't fall foul of too many delays unless they are of his own making. He is in a three-ball starting at the 10th tee with Rico Hoey and Matteo Manassero. He looks value to win that.
Mixed Grillo Can Fire Up At Pinehurst - Or Flop!
Humour me for my final thought. Emiliano Grillo may well see his game implode at Pinehurst, but then again he has it in him to do something special.
Like Fitzpatrick, he shot 69 for the last round at Muirfield after shooting 70-78-76 on the first three days.
The Argentinian has it in him to go very low at the trickiest of courses as he proved with a third-round 63 at the Sony Open, and he was going along OK at the Heritage until he shot a final-round 74.
Grillo was seven under after three rounds at The Players Championship only to finish with a 77 courtesy of a double bogey at 16 and a dropped shot at 18.
And at my barometer for this tournament, Bay Hill, he was only held back by a 74 in the third round.
He generally goes par or better in round one, and is value against Corey Conners and Stephan Jaeger in his opening-round three-ball.
He is one of the early starters from the first. I sense he is priced on is all-round volatility. That said, if he makes the cut, he would be at the top of my list for lowest fourth-round score. However, I appreciate he is a long shot to make the cut.
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