The 2024 Rugby Championship: Australia Vs South Africa Betting Tips
Australia Vs South Africa Predictions:
- South Africa -10.5 Points To Beat Australia - 2.00 With Bet365
- Second Half To Be The Highest Scoring Half - 1.86 With Unibet
- Kurt-Lee Arendse To Score A Try - 2.45 With PlayUp
The 29th edition of the annual Rugby Championship (formerly Tri-Nations) competition kicks off in Brisbane on Saturday afternoon local time with new Wallabies head coach Joe Schmidt beginning the most important assignment of his tenure to date.
World champions South Africa are near-unbackable favourites with rugby betting sites around the world to win this tournament for the first time since 2019, on the back of their Rugby World Cup win less than one year ago.
Both national teams have entered rebuilding phases for different reasons, and whilst the odds suggest there’s an enormous gulf between the two teams at this present time, this is a fixture that has inspired the Wallabies in recent years.
They started each of their last three matches at home to the Springboks as outsiders and won two of the three, including South Africa’s last visit to Brisbane in 2021 (30-17).
Whilst stranger things have happened in sport, a Wallabies victory might be a bit of a stretch at this stage, and on that note we’ve picked our three best bets for this opening match at Lang Park.
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Wallabies Continue To Both Promise And Underwhelm
Morale-wise, Australian rugby has taken a sharp turn in the 10 months that followed their worst-ever World Cup campaign.
There was a bit to like in their trilogy of home victories over Wales (twice) and Georgia, even if the latter needed a bit more work than they would have perhaps liked.
The Wallabies are still yet to find a rock solid and consistent fly-half and Schmidt has invested his faith in Noah Lolesio this week in absence of the recovering Tom Lynagh.
They are a little undermanned in other sections of the park including up forward, where Taniela Tupou has made himself unavailable following the passing of his father.
Whilst there is much more promise than the doom and gloom of the Eddie Jones era, from a wagering perspective it must be noted that the Wallabies fell short of the main betting handicap in all three wins, taking their record at covering the line to an incredible 1-11 since the start of 2024.
There will be some point at which they’ll naturally begin to tilt that back towards parity, but perhaps not against the world champions, who in that same period forged a 63% success rate at beating the 1.90/1.90 line.
At time of publication, Bet365 were offering Evens for South Africa at the line, suggesting we’re taking on the popular opinion here!
Best Bet: South Africa -10.5 Points To Beat Australia - 2.00 With Bet365
A Trend That Cannot Be Ignored
An even more extensive pattern we identified running our eyes over the stats for this match relates to a betting market that is a little more niche and unpredictable, yet the numbers are compelling.
South Africa have done the bulk of their scoring after the half-time break this year, just as they did in the pool stage of the Rugby World Cup, which gives us confidence that if they can keep Australia quiet early on, they can run away with things and cover the line in the second half.
This year, the Springboks have scored more tries in the second half than in the first, a pattern which was repeated for at least each of the three calendar years prior, and as a result a staggering 77% of all of their internationals since the beginning of 2022 saw more points in the second half.
Despite that, some Australian betting apps such as Unibet are offering near-even odds for the first and second half to be the highest scoring, which could be considered potential ‘overs’ in light of a compelling three-year trend.
Best Bet: Second Half To Be The Highest Scoring Half - 1.86 With Unibet
Amazing Arendse To Animate Australian Audiences
It often pays to shop around when it comes to getting the best value out of the litany of Australian betting sites and there could perhaps be no better example this week than the popular try scoring markets.
Springbok winger Kurt-Lee Arendse is the favourite to register a try after an outstanding United Rugby Championship season in which he was one of three Bulls players in the top four of the individual try scoring charts as they racked up an average of more than four tries per game.
He followed that up with tries against Ireland and Portugal in the winter to extend an outstanding international record that has seen him register at least one try in 12 of his 18 internationals - a strike rate of 66.7%.
Whereas most sites are offering slightly less than even money for him and his fellow dynamic winger Cheslin Kolbe to get on the scoresheet, PlayUp has Arendse at a brilliant price of 2.45 at time of writing - a significant difference in profit should we be successful!
Best Bet: Kurt-Lee Arendse To Score A Try - 2.45 With PlayUp
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