AFL Betting Tips 2024, Round 24: Top Picks And Betting Trends
AFL Round 24 Predictions:
- Hawthorn -50.5 Points - 1.9 With Bluebet
- Brisbane Vs Essendon Under 170.5 Points - 1.9 With Bet365
- GWS +13.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Extraordinary 40+ possession efforts from Tom Green and Zak Butters, as well as a tight win from the GWS Giants against Fremantle, delivered readers of our 2024 AFL best bets blog yet another successful week in what has been a fantastic season overall.
There are simply too many finals permutations to go through individually for the nine contenders - or 10 if Collingwood were to thrash Melbourne by upwards of 90+ points - who are fighting it out for the eight spots in the first weekend of September.
Last week was quite the definitive week in terms of sorting out the contenders as the in-form Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn continued their rise up the ladder, whilst Carlton gave themselves some much needed air.
There must have also been some relief at AFL House and the MCC offices when a third consecutive loss for Fremantle all but ruled out the prospect of no Week 1 finals football in Melbourne.
For the final time this regular season, we’ll go through our three best plays of the round and identify some value odds across AFL betting apps for some favourite player prop bets.
Hawthorn v North Melbourne, Saturday, 4:40pm (AEST)
Hawthorn could hardly have asked for an easier assignment when needing to win to guarantee their place in September, and Australian betting sites expect them to rack up a 50-point margin win against a North Melbourne side simply hoping to avoid the wooden spoon.
The Hawks are almost certainly too far away from the Bulldogs in terms of percentage, but will nonetheless be looking to fill their boots and sharpen up all aspects of their game ahead of their first finals appearance since 2018, which certainly didn’t appear likely when they had a 1-6 record at the end of April.
Including a two-point loss away to GWS in which they had a +2.5 point handicap, Hawthorn covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 matches as favourites, courtesy of some booming wins against lower grade opposition such as Richmond (by 63 and 48 points), West Coast (61 points) and Adelaide (66 points).
We’re expecting them to treat North Melbourne with similar disdain, and will also look to Jack Gunston to continue his love affair with Tasmania.
Gunston has recently returned to some excellent goalkicking form with 3+ in his last three appearances, and that can be married up with a stretch of 3+ in four of his five games in Launceston or Hobart since the start of 2023.
Best Bet: Hawthorn -50.5 Points - 1.9 With Bluebet
Player Prop: Jack Gunston to kick 3+ goals - 2.6 @ Ladbrokes
Brisbane Lions v Essendon, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
2024 could be a case of ‘what if’ for both the Brisbane Lions and Essendon, though the former still have almost certainly booked themselves a place in September with their 13 wins this season.
They’ll run out onto The Gabba on Saturday night knowing if West Coast have done them a favour and left fourth place open, though in all likelihood they’ll be playing to secure a home elimination final.
Their recent history against Essendon, whilst not remarkably low scoring, has at least seen all but one of the last nine head-to-head encounters finishing under the main total points handicap, the most recent of which was an 87-45 win to the Lions last year.
In addition, Brisbane’s last five matches all fell short of the 170.5 point mark set for this fixture, as did three of Essendon’s last four, so the most recent month is also on that side in our regard.
Brisbane forward Cam Rayner doesn’t typically stay quiet for too long, and after kicking 0.2 in consecutive weeks, is not far away from returning to something along the lines of his six-game streak of 2+ goals, particularly at The Gabba, where he has a 50% success rate this season of kicking multiple goals.
On those figures, a price of 2.40 at Bluebet is certainly appealing.
Best Bet: Brisbane Vs Essendon Under 170.5 Points - 1.9 With Bet365
Player Prop: Cam Rayner to kick 2+ goals - 2.4 @ Bluebet
Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants, Sunday, 12:30pm (AEST)
The last Sunday triple-header of the season commences unusually early at 12:30pm so that the locals of Ballarat can get home before the evening winter freeze sets in at 4pm.
All jokes aside, it promises to be one of a series of close Round 24 fixtures between some in-form competitors - at least according to Australian bookmakers who have set the handicap at 13.5 points in favour of the Bulldogs.
They’re on a run of six wins from their last seven games against the Giants, but the one exception took place when the two teams met in Ballarat last year (Round 20) and the Giants came out on top by five points.
GWS have firmed up as the second-favourites to win the flag following seven straight victories, three of which were interstate and four of which came against fellow finals hopefuls.
They have continued to exceed expectations by covering the main line in six of their last seven outings and, with proven performances on the road in 2024, should give the Bulldogs a great test if they don’t head home with the four points.
After he recorded his 12th 2+ goal haul of 2024 against Fremantle, we’re tipping Toby Greene to do so again for what would be the 13th consecutive time against the Western Bulldogs, dating back to 2015.
Best Bet: GWS +13.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Toby Greene to kick 2+ goals - 1.78 @ Unibet
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