• Collingwood-Geelong Over 169.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
• Sydney To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.8 With Blue Bet
• Western Bulldogs-Carlton Over 175.5 Points - 1.9 @ Unibet

Jake Waterman’s second goal in the third quarter of West Coast’s heavy defeat to Melbourne spared us our blushes and kept our six Round 17 selections to an unnoticeable 1.66% loss on investment. 

But it was nowhere near enough to save the job of Eagles head coach Adam Simpson, who departed the club during the week after 11 seasons in charge including the 2018 Premiership-winning campaign.

West Coast’s season effectively ended weeks ago and all the attention is on the 15 clubs above them on the ladder, all of whom are still in the hunt for September action.

Narrow losses for Sydney and Carlton helped drag the peloton a little closer to the front, with seven of the eight teams to finish the round third to tenth enjoying victories.

Following another fascinating weekend that saw outsiders win five of the nine games, a couple of potentially decisive fixtures caught our attention from a betting perspective as we once again looked over the dozens of markets offered by our favourite AFL betting sites for Round 18.

Collingwood v Geelong, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)

After misreading the Collingwood formline last week and tipping them to cover a modest line against Essendon, we’ll dust ourselves off and approach the Magpies’ second consecutive Friday night marquee match from a different perspective. 

The Magpies and Geelong have faced off in three separate finals since 2019 and could very well meet again this September, especially if Collingwood can shake off their recent poor form and move alongside the Cats on 40 points with what would be a third consecutive head-to-head victory.

The pre-match outsider has covered the line in six of their last seven games, including their thumping win as underdogs over Melbourne in Round 13, so don’t be surprised to see another result against the odds here.

Instead, we’ve got our eyes on the total points mark of 169.5 points offered during the week, not least because these two sides started the round fifth and second in the competition for average total points scored and conceded.

AFL betting apps have of course taken those numbers into account, but the averages of both teams exceed 170 (172 for Collingwood and 179 for Geelong), while nine of the last 10 games involving either club cleared 165+ points.

One man we expect to contribute to the total is 25-year-old Tyson Stengle, who just a fortnight ago signed a five-year contract extension to stay in Geelong until 2029. 

He’s got nine goals to his name from five games at the MCG this season and rarely has back-to-back weeks, last failing to kick 2+ goals in consecutive rounds in March. 

Best Bet: Collingwood-Geelong Over 169.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Tyson Stengle 2+ Goals - 1.72 @ Unibet

Sydney v North Melbourne, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)

Just one more accurate shot for goal in each of their last two outings would have had Sydney on a 15-1 record instead of 13-3 and almost certainly sealed the minor Premiership.

They ought not to be too concerned about losses to Fremantle and St Kilda given the narrow margins, particularly as captain Callum Mills is making a long-awaited return this weekend, but a loss to North Melbourne certainly would have alarm bells ringing. 

Australian betting sites understandably have them as almost unbackable favourites at home to North Melbourne, who are showing considerable upside since their last bye in the form of covering the pre-match line on five straight occasions. 

The line was set in the mid-40s for this particular clash at the start of the weekend, but recent form points towards North Melbourne covering it and potentially even more, which brings a high value 1-39 margin bet into play. 

North Melbourne have lost each of their last seven games to Sydney within the 1-39 point bracket, whilst eight of Sydney’s 13 victories this season fell within that range. 

Whilst he hasn’t quite been amongst the disposals quite like he usually is over the last four weeks, Chad Warner should get a bit of additional freedom against one of the worst teams in the competition when it comes to both tackles and pressure acts.

Five of Warner’s eight 25+ disposal hauls this season were in victories at the SCG, and after four games with 20-23 touches, some bookmakers such as Ladbrokes are offering a very attractive price for the drought to end.

Best Bet: Sydney To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.8 With Blue Bet
Player Prop: Chad Warner 25+ disposals - 1.92 @ Ladbrokes

Western Bulldogs v Carlton, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)

Our Round 18 preview ends early with the Saturday twilight game at Marvel Stadium, where Carlton will be looking to record a sixth consecutive victory in Melbourne following what was a third straight loss in Sydney.

Even after succumbing to the Giants last weekend, Carlton still owns one of the league’s best win rates as favourites (73%; W8, L3) this season and are expected to extend that further here.

The last six head-to-heads all saw the outsider cover the pre-match line, which points towards the Bulldogs earning an honourable loss at worst, but that looks unlikely based on their performance against Port Adelaide last weekend.

Similarly to our prediction of the opening game of this round, the Western Bulldogs and Carlton have both been involved in some high scoring affairs this season, averaging 172 and 186 total points per game.

The Blues finished last round as the second-most prolific scorers of the season with five 100+ scores in their last six weeks, which, when combined with their 86 points conceded per match and the Bulldogs’ average score of nearly 92, should see this match very comfortably clear 176+ points if the trends hold.

Bailey Dale’s run of four straight games with 25+ possessions ended with 23 against Port Adelaide last week, and for those who fancy him to bounce back to rack up 25+ for what would be a ninth time in 12 games, you’ll find an attractive 1.65 on Bet365 for your troubles. 

Best Bet: Western Bulldogs-Carlton Over 175.5 Points - 1.9 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Bailey Dale 25+ Disposals - 1.65 With Blue Bet