AFL Round 20 Predictions:

• Port Adelaide +14.5 points - 1.9 @ PlayUp
• Brisbane Lions HT/FT Double - 2.1 @ Bet365
• Hawthorn +1.5 points - 1.9 @ Ladbrokes

Sydney’s third loss in four outings last weekend muddied the waters even further and brought the chasing pack a little closer, particularly with the four clubs directly beneath them at the end of last round all winning.

But with just two wins separating second-placed Carlton from a resurging Hawthorn in 11th at the start of this round, there appears to be no standout challenger to the ladder leaders - who this week will be hoping to bounce back with a fourth straight win over the Bulldogs. 

Australian betting sites are locked and loaded once again with dozens of fascinating markets, and yet another winning week in which regular followers of our AFL best bets blog would have profited about 15% with even staking, we’re hoping our own good form carries through to September!

As always, here are our three best picks for the following round of footy as well as the best prices one can find across online bookmakers.

Carlton v Port Adelaide, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)

The round begins under the Marvel Stadium roof with two clubs hoping for the all-important double chance come September.

Carlton have turned the tide on this head-to-head in recent years, winning the last three encounters across 2022-24 after losing each of the previous six, with that and their superior ladder position responsible for their warm favouritism with AFL betting apps.

Home ground advantage will no doubt have been priced in, but that could perhaps be overstated given that Port Adelaide have won 10 of their last 11 games at Marvel Stadium - albeit with the one exception being a 50-point loss to the Blues at a similar time in 2023.

Long term trends often bear more weight than exceptions, and with Carlton losing two of their last three games as favourites and falling well short of the line in the other, we’ll be confidently taking Port Adelaide at the line on PlayUp at what is their strongest venue of recent years.

Port flanker Mitch Georgiades presents a stellar 3.0 price to continue his superb goalkicking form which, thanks mostly in part to his excellent accuracy of 72% over his last six matches, he cleared 3+ goals in all but one.

Tip: Port Adelaide +14.5 points - 1.9 @ PlayUp

Player Prop: Mitch Georgiades to kick 3+ goals - 3.0 @ Bet365

Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)

The 27th QClash is taking place in front of a similar backdrop to many over the last few years: with the Brisbane Lions in the reckoning for finals and Gold Coast Suns looking set for an early exit.

All is not lost for the Suns if they can fix their dreadful losing streak at opposition venues, but as far as this week is concerned they can cling onto a perfect 7-0 record at People First Stadium, where they cleared 90+ points on six occasions, for some hope.

Brisbane were thumped by the Suns at this venue in Round 20 last year, in a derby that followed physically sapping and hard fought contests against fellow finalists Melbourne and Geelong. 

This time around, they have climbed the AFL table rapidly with seven consecutive wins, defeating four teams above Gold Coast on the ladder in that period.

If they can expose the Suns early, they’ll be hard to stop as every single one of the Gold Coast’s 18 games this season were won by the half-time leader of the day, and with the Lions holding a quarter-time lead in each of their last seven wins, that suggests they should be able to hold onto any strong start.

On that basis, we’re searching for some additional value by backing the Lions to be in front at the end of both halves with Bet365.

Charlie Cameron followed up four consecutive two-goal hauls with just one against the Swans, but steps out here to take on an opposition against whom he has kicked 2+ goals in 11 of his last 12 appearances.

That makes 1.87 on Unibet a truly amazing price for him to do it again!

Tip: Brisbane Lions HT/FT Double - 2.1 @ Bet365

Player Prop: Charlie Cameron to kick 2+ goals - 1.87 @ Unibet

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Adelaide v Hawthorn, Sunday, 4:10pm (AEST)

Taking Hawthorn at near even-money odds last week turned out to be perhaps the easiest watch of the season so far, and we’re understandably keen to go again at an even greater price.

The Adelaide Crows began this round three wins out of the eight, but their remote finals hopes are still flickering after winning three of their last four games, two of which were against current top-eight chances.

But the next test is to continue to build winning momentum, something that has eluded them for longer than a four-week period this season. 

Don’t forget that in April they upset Port Adelaide and Carlton only for a draw against Brisbane and narrow loss to Collingwood derailing their late start to their campaign.

The Hawks have now won four of their last five games as underdogs, which started against the Bulldogs in Round 8, so it’s hard to want to get off the bandwagon particularly when they recently dominated lower ranked clubs such as West Coast (61 points), Richmond (48 points) and Adelaide themselves in June (27 points). 

Accounting for Adelaide’s home ground advantage, we’ll buy just a little insurance by going for Hawthorn at the line with Ladbrokes. 

It may even be worth doubling it up with a price of 1.73 for Lachlan Sholl to kick a goal, which he has done in nine of his last 12 games.

Tip: Hawthorn +1.5 points - 1.9 @ Ladbrokes

Player Prop: Lachlan Sholl Anytime Goalscorer - 1.73 @ Ladbrokes