• GWS To Beat Fremantle By 1-39 Points - 2.2 With Bluebet
• Adelaide Vs Port Either By Under 15.5 Points - 2.85 With PlayUp
• St Kilda Vs Geelong Under 165.5 Points - 1.9 With Unibet

With two rounds left in the 2024 AFL season, the league has whittled 18 clubs down to 11 - or 13 if you wish to count Gold Coast and Melbourne, who are in the dreaded 'mathematically possible' territory as far as their finals chances are concerned.

All but one of this weekend’s nine matches will have a say in shaping both the top eight and four and there are expected to be some thrilling encounters, with AFL betting sites setting seven lines of fewer than 15 points at the start of the week.

After crunching the numbers and assessing the dozens of markets across our favourite Australian bookmakers, we’re anticipating a couple of them in particular to be close affairs and another to be the lowest scoring of the round. 

Without further ado, here are our three Round 23 best bets as well as the best value you can find for three popular player props. 

GWS Giants v Fremantle, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)

GWS have stormed into Premiership contention alongside Sydney and Brisbane on Australian betting sites and are hoping to keep a good thing going when they host Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium for just the fourth time, having won all three previous head-to-heads at the Showgrounds.

They’re on an outstanding run of six consecutive victories, all by a 1-39 point margin and all seeing them cover the pre-game line of the day.

Last week they were too good for the third-best defensive unit of the season and this promises to be an even tougher test against a Fremantle side that have conceded fewer points (74.6 per game) than any other.

Still, the Giants have won many key moments along the way during their current streak and the advantage of a 5-2 record at this ground should serve them well.

Freo’s defending should mean that punters who fancy the Giants to keep their rollicking form going can extract some excellent value from the 1-39 point margin market.

Coleman Medal leader Jesse Hogan is understandably one of the most popular picks for goal scoring markets, and given he has a 52% strike rate in 2024 when it comes to kicking 3+ goals in a game, the price of 1.87 offered by Bet365 for him to do it again seems quite reasonable.

The numbers tilt slightly in his favour on this occasion, for Hogan has recorded 3+ goals in five of the Giants’ seven matches at ENGIE Stadium this season, whilst also doing so in nine of GWS’ 14 victories across all venues.

It might therefore be worth taking if you anticipate GWS to win this game, but bear in mind that the league’s best defence could keep him quiet.

We’re instead looking to midfielder Tom Green to register 30+ possessions, as he has done in six of his seven games at ENGIE Stadium this year, whilst the sole exception saw him fall just one short. That’s great consistency.

Best Bet: GWS To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.2 With Bluebet

Player Prop: Tom Green 30+ Disposals - 1.87 With Bet365

Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)

Form and ladder position goes out the window when these two fierce rivals do battle at the Adelaide Oval, as illustrated by the last three Showdowns that saw the Crows win as the underdogs and by big margins on all three occasions. 

Both wins in 2023 even brought two losing streaks to an end, whilst Adelaide took a 2-5 record into their successful Showdown earlier this season. 

Last week’s commanding win over the Bulldogs further confirmed that they’re not short of motivation despite this being their penultimate game of the season.

Port Adelaide have a sound 11-3 record as favourites this season, with the previous Showdown being one of the three exceptions, and have earned their favouritism following four straight wins even though the last one was a scrappy affair. 

But they’re the ones feeling all the pressure as they look to lock in a top-four spot and the double chance accompanying it. 

The absences of Mitch Georgiades and Todd Marshall could cost them some authority in this game, and knowing what Adelaide have brought to the last few Showdowns, we’re anticipating a tight game to go in either direction. 

Port rover Zak Butters is a particularly busy midfielder these days and has a 48% success rate at racking up at least 30 disposals, which makes the price of 2.15 available on Bet365 a fair one, particularly as he has counts of 33 and 32 possessions in the last two Showdowns.

Best Bet: Either Team To Win By Under 15.5 Points - 2.85 With PlayUp

Player Prop: Zak Butters 30+ Disposals - 2.15 With Bet365

St Kilda v Geelong, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)

One of the most consistently profitable bets of the 2024 AFL season has been for matches involving St Kilda to finish under the pre-match total points handicap, and it’s one we’re keen to ride for at least one last time.

Owing to their outstanding defensive unit (76 points conceded per game) but sluggish attack (74 points), St Kilda’s games this season are averaging a league low of just 150 points - well below the 165.5 point mark set by AFL betting apps for this game. 

That average drops even further to 148 when only including their 11 games played under the Marvel Stadium roof, which is remarkable given the conditions should be conducive to high scoring.

Eight of those 11 matches produced fewer than 165.5 points, with the three exceptions between 166 and 168, so there is plenty at least from the Saints’ perspective to point towards the ‘unders’ here.

It takes two to tango and warm favourites Geelong are coming into this round with six wins from their last seven games, conceding an average of just 67 points in those six victories. 

The league’s fourth-worst scorers may therefore do well just to reach that total against the Cats, so neither side may be capable of doing the heavy lifting as far as the scoring is concerned. 

Despite that, backing Tim Membrey to kick 2+ goals at 1.87 on Ladbrokes could still be a solid investment after he did so in three of his last four appearances. 

Best Bet: Under 165.5 Points - 1.9 With Unibet

Player Prop: Tim Membrey To Kick 2+ Goals - 1.87 With Ladbrokes