AFL Betting Tips 2024, Round 16: Top Picks And Betting Trends
- North Melb-West Bulldogs Over 181.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
- Essendon To Beat Geelong - 1.8 With Bet365
- Port Adelaide To Beat St Kilda By 1-39 Points - 2.55 With BlueBet
The second trimester of the 2024 AFL season comes to a conclusion this weekend and, with the exception of ladder leaders Sydney, it appears that all other clubs have endured troubles at some point in the season.
There have been some fascinating moves throughout the middle portion of the 2024 campaign, especially from Carlton and Hawthorn who have strung together four consecutive wins immediately after a tumultuous period to challenge for the top two and top eight respectively.
Sydney continue to firm week by week with AFL betting sites as the outright Premiership favourites, courtesy of their outstanding consistency, especially in the second half where they have been outscored only twice this year.
One win separated fourth from 13th at the start of Round 16, which makes this weekend perhaps one of the most tantalising of the year so far when it comes to potentially decisive match-ups, starting with a 10th v ninth showdown in Brisbane.
After yet another profitable week for our AFL best bets previews, albeit a very modest one, we’ve got house money to play with once again as we scan our favourite AFL betting apps for our three best bets as well as finding the best odds for three popular player props.
North Melbourne Vs Western Bulldogs, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
Our weekend begins under the roof of Marvel Stadium, which has witnessed many monstrously high-scoring matches involving both North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.
The most recent of them took place only a fortnight ago when North Melbourne succumbed to one of the biggest comebacks in AFL history, relinquishing a lead of more than 50 points and missing multiple chances to close out the win.
They remain by far the worst defence in the league, conceding a hefty average of 111 points per game which was exceeded in their last outing at Marvel.
In fact, the Roos have shipped at least 100 points in each of their six games at the venue this season, and after a spirited effort against the Demons last round have to back up against a team scoring nearly 96 points per game, an average that jumps up to 113 points when they win.
The Bulldogs’ last six matches under the Marvel Stadium roof not only cleared the total points handicap of the game, but they all exceeded the already high 181.5 point mark set by AFL betting apps.
That’s why you should still be able to attack the ‘overs’ with confidence despite it being the highest projected total score of the entire round.
One player likely to contribute to the hefty scoring is Bulldog Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and he has an excellent 67% strike rate for kicking 2+ goals this season, a rate that improves to 100% in his last six games at this venue!
Best Bet: Over 181.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 2+ goals - 1.55 With Bluebet
Geelong Cats Vs Essendon Bombers, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
One of the potentially closest contests of the weekend according to Australian bookmakers is the annual ‘Country Round’ game between Geelong and Essendon at the MCG.
Essendon could perhaps have no better chance to avenge some woeful recent history against the Cats, sustaining six straight Premiership season defeats since 2019, including some very hefty losses in 2023 (77 points), 2022 (66) and 2020 (66 despite reduced quarters).
Inaccurate kicking single-handedly cost them wins against both Carlton and Gold Coast, games which they lost with more scoring shots, before they straightened themselves up to bury West Coast in their last outing.
They’re narrow favourites, but favourites nonetheless and it’s a tag that has sat with them very comfortably over the last two seasons, with the Bombers winning 13 consecutive matches.
On the other hand, inconsistency has plagued Geelong since they challenged Sydney as Premiership favourites earlier in the season.
Their top-four credentials have gone down the toilet and they’re now at great threat of missing the finals after losing each of their last six games against teams starting 12th or higher, whilst winning the sole exception (Richmond).
They’re hardly in a space to threaten the Bombers at this stage, but Chris Scott has for many years been capable of finding some magic just when the pressure builds.
Kyle Langford kicking 2+ goals looks an excellent play if you fancy the Bombers to win, for he has done so in 11 of their last 12 victories.
Best Bet: Essendon To Win - 1.8 With Bet365
Player Prop: Kyle Langford To Kick 2+ goals - 1.75 With Ladbrokes
St Kilda Vs Port Adelaide, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
This weekend looks to be the timely boost that Port Adelaide desperately need.
Head coach Ken Hinkley’s head is almost on the chopping block after three bruising defeats, two of which were to top-eight sides Carlton and GWS whilst the most recent came against resurging 2023 runners-up Brisbane.
That’s of little comfort to the Port Adelaide fans who harboured ambitions of their own after the team won eight of their first 11 games of the season, and it’s that long-term success that should drive Hinkley and his players to believe that this slump can be ended.
The opponents and the venue both lined up in their favour for this Round 16 clash at Marvel Stadium, where Port Adelaide had covered the pre-match line in nine straight victories up until a 50-point loss to Carlton last year.
Those nine consecutive victories at Marvel Stadium included a 2023 triumph over St Kilda which forms part of their 13 wins from the last 14 head-to-head meetings.
The Saints, meanwhile, have one of the league’s poorer records as a favourite after losing to both Fremantle and Hawthorn on Melbourne soil in May, but it’s hard to envisage Port Adelaide piling on a great deal of misery in their current form.
Considering he was the 1.50 favourite to kick multiple goals on some other Australian betting sites at time of publication, the 1.82 offered by Ladbrokes looks outstanding for Mitch Georgiades to register a third consecutive 2+ goal haul.
Best Bet: Port Adelaide By 1-39 Points - 2.55 With BlueBet
Player Prop: Mitch Georgiades To Kick 2+ goals - 1.82 With Ladbrokes
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