AFL Betting Tips 2024: Finals Week 1 And Betting Trends
One hundred and eighty two days after the curtain was lifted on a controversial ‘opening round’ in Sydney, the longest season in the 127-year history of the V/AFL, the Adelaide Oval will take centre stage for the first of seven finals matches to determine the 2024 Premiers.
Despite a healthy 63% of match favourites winning throughout the season, a drop of only a few percent from years gone by, it has gone down as one of the least predictable Premierships of the modern era.
From Collingwood’s miserable flag defence to Sydney’s 10-game winning streak and the late season resurgences of both Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs, this is shaping up to be one of the most open finals series in recent memory with no standout leader in the eyes of the wider public.
Australian betting sites have retained the Sydney Swans as favourites throughout the season but there has been a lot of shuffling around them including Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Geelong and GWS all being close to co-favourites at one point or another.
Port Adelaide Vs Geelong, Thursday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Geelong had to some extent been forgotten after they lost six out of seven games in the middle of the season, having played some outstanding football earlier in the campaign to keep up with the runaway Swans.
That included an agonising six-point loss at home to qualifying final opponents Port Adelaide, but they have long since straightened themselves up, albeit mostly against non-finalists, but their 51-point demolition of in-form Hawthorn was most noteworthy.
No team has a better win rate as underdogs in 2024 than Geelong (W5 L2; 71%) and their 4-1 record at the Adelaide Oval since 2022, including against Port Adelaide in 2022 (106-94), means the venue shouldn’t be a hindrance to their charge.
One key aspect of their recovery has been the ability to score in the absence of the injured Tom Hawkins, whose slump in form coincided with their own, thanks to Jeremy Cameron and Shannon Neale.
They have since won seven out of nine games played without Hawkins, and approaching his 12th finals campaign at the helm of the Cats, Chris Scott could well have them peaking.
One man standing in their way is Port forward Mitch Georgiades, who has made followers of our regular blog some good coin throughout the year.
He’s on a five-game streak of kicking 3+ goals at the Adelaide Oval, but in the pressure situation of a final, we’ll take the conservative approach of backing him to end up with 2+, especially with a market-best 1.58 offered by Ladbrokes at time of publication.
Best Bet: Geelong +12.5 Points Vs Port Adelaide - 1.9 With Unibet
Player Prop: Mitch Georgiades to kick 2+ goals - 1.58 With Ladbrokes
* To access the four selections below, simply sign up to Gambling.com for FREE.
AFL Finals Week 1 Predictions:
- Geelong +12.5 Points Vs Port Adelaide - 1.9 With Unibet
- Western Bulldogs To Beat Hawthorn - 1.73 With Ladbrokes
- Brisbane To Beat Carlton By 1-39 Points - 1.95 With Bet365
Bulldogs v Hawthorn, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Since they last met on the opening weekend of May, the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn have combined for 23 wins out of 30 games to stamp themselves as perhaps the two most dangerous roughies.
That’s one reason why they’re both hovering around the $10 mark in the Premiership market on Australian betting sites despite being the sixth and seventh choices, further highlighting just how tight this finals series is on paper.
The Hawks are on a seven-game winning streak in Melbourne following enormous thrashings of lowly Richmond (131-68) and fellow finalists Carlton (112-38) in the final month.
As a result of the latter, they have racked up more wins as an underdog (W6, L8) than any other time this year, but will this time come up against a Bulldogs side flying high after their Ballarat demolition of Premiership contenders GWS in the final round.
The Bulldogs finished the regular season second in the competition for points per game (94.4) and points conceded (75.5), giving them the all-round game that has not only conquered GWS in the second half of the season but also Sydney (87-48), Geelong (95-48) and Carlton (100-86).
Jack Gunston has been a significant contributor to Hawthorn’s rise with six separate 3+ goal hauls in six of his last 10 appearances, reminding us of some vintage Gunston performances that include 3+ goals in five of his last six H2Hs.
He’s amongst the favourites on many AFL betting apps in the 2+ goal market, but PlayUp were offering better than even money at time of writing.
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs To Beat Hawthorn - 1.73 With Ladbrokes
Player Prop: Jack Gunston To Kick 2+ goals - 2.1 With PlayUp
Brisbane v Carlton, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
A rematch of one of last year’s two preliminary finals rounds out the opening week of the 2024 AFL finals and Brisbane will certainly be hoping for a repeat result (79-63), as are we as we’ll be extracting some value out of their favouritism by taking the 1-39 winning margin play.
Inefficient goalkicking cost them games against Collingwood and GWS, and as the third-least accurate goalkickers of 2024 (46.6%) they certainly cannot afford similar mistakes against the competition’s third-most accurate team (53.5%).
The teams are very similar in terms of points scored but Brisbane’s defence is going for nearly nine fewer points per game (76 to 84.9), with that dropping slightly lower to 75 at The Gabba, where they have won seven of their last eight matches as well as eight of their last nine against Carlton.It’s hard to imagine the Blues, who have lost by 40+ points just twice this year (R10 v Sydney and R22 v Hawthorn), struggling to be competitive in a final, so the 1-39 point margin market could be a wise way to go if you expect the Lions to win this one.
Last round, Charlie Cameron lifted his success rate for kicking 2+ goals to 52% (12 of 23 games).
Having kicked 2+ in the opening week of each of Brisbane’s last four finals campaigns, the 1.89 price on PlayUp looks a very fair one.
Hawthorn could hardly have asked for an easier assignment when needing to win to guarantee their place in September, and Australian betting sites expect them to rack up a 50-point margin win against a North Melbourne side simply hoping to avoid the wooden spoon.
Best Bet: Brisbane To Beat Carlton By 1-39 Points - 1.95 With Bet365
Player Prop: Charlie Cameron to kick 2+ goals - 1.89 With PlayUp
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.
