NBA Betting Tips: Picking Rookie of the Year Award Winners
Regardless of what you consider a rookie to be – don’t ask Donovan Mitchell – the NBA's Rookie of the Year race is annually one of the most exciting races for basketball betting fans all over the world.
The best young players showing off their current skill set as well as what’s to come usually comes down to the final month, making this market a fun and potentially lucrative long-term wager. But there’s much more involved than simply visiting the top online bookmakers and backing the top picks.
Here are six things to look for when considering betting the Rookie of the Year market.
Minutes Matter
This feels like an obvious one – that a player needs to be on the court – but consider from 2001 to 2018, 16 of 17 Rookies of the Year played 30 or more minutes per game. Half of those averaged a whopping 36 minutes or more per game, which would have ranked 14th during the 2018 season. The award winners amass counting stats – not necessarily efficient ones – meaning total minutes are crucial when backing the market.
Find a player who has an open window to both start and play big minutes each night, not just as a rotational player. The best rookies are going to have longer leashes and allowed to play through their mistakes. From 2000 to 2018, 56 rookies averaged 30 or more minutes, or 3.1 per season. Identify the players who might reach that threshold and you have a good chance of finding your Rookie of the Year winner.
Point Guards Get the Edge
Which young position has to work through his mistakes? The point guard. They’ve also got the ball in their hands, leading to more numbers (we’ll get to that later). And in a league that continues to rely more on elite and versatile point guard play, Rookie of the Year winners reflect that. Nine of 13 winners between 2005-2018 were point guards, including 5 of 7 between 2011-2018. All nine of those players averaged at least 4.0 assists, if you’re looking for a bar for your potential pick to reach.
When in Doubt, Go with a Top Pick
There’s no real correlation with the Rookie of the Year winner and where he was drafted. From 1999 to 2018 the winners have come from picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, and 36 (Malcolm Brogdon is the outlier to end all outliers).But beginning with LeBron James in 2003-04 and going till 2018, seven of the 15 winners were the No. 1 pick (Simmons, Towns, Wiggins, Irving, Griffin, Rose, James). Two others were the No. 2 pick (Okfaor, Durant), meaning 60 percent of the Rookies of the Year came from the Nos. 1 and 2 slots. This shouldn’t be shocking, given they’re the most talented players in the class.
Points are a Good Barometer
We told you minutes matter. And when you play more minutes, you have more opportunities to score points. That’s big, because 12 of the 18 Rookies of the Year between 2000 and 2018 led their class in scoring. The other six finished second, second, third, third, third and fifth (again, thanks Malcolm Brogdon). That’s an average of 1.6 where Rookies of the Year finished in scoring.
Because efficiency is rarely taken into account, and most times the best rookies play for the worst teams – so team record doesn’t really matter – high scoring totals stand out. Consider that when making a play.
That’s great if you believe a rookie center can come in and be a defensive threat from Day 1 and make an impact on that end of the floor. It just probably isn’t going to result in a Rookie of the Year award. Make sure your pick has the potential to score with the best in his class.
Make Sure Your Winner is a Loser
Ben Simmons (2018, Sixers) and Malcolm Brogdon (2017, Bucks) played for above-.500 teams. That ended a rather long trend that we believe will begin again sooner than later. And that’s seven Rookie of the Year winners from 2011 to 2018 played for teams that won an average of 25.7 games; the “best” team of those seven won 33 games (Damian Lillard’s 2013 Blazers).
Prior to the 2017 and 2018 seasons, you had to go back to the 2003 Phoenix Suns and Amare Stoudemire to find a Rookie of the Year award winner on a winning team. Those past two years had odd circumstances, too: Simmons was in his second NBA season and playing for a Sixers team that was ready to contend; Brogdon was a second-round pick in a wildly disappointing rookie class. Expect the losing trend to begin again soon.
Check Out: Legal Quebec Sports Betting sites and major sports to bet on.
Sustained Success
Rookies of the Year need to have the perfect situation, with ample playing time, enough of a supporting cast to help his numbers but not enough to detract in other areas. But Rookies of the Year in the NBA also have sustained success.
There’s rarely a flash in the pan. From 1992 to 2013, all but five of the 24 Rookie of the Year winners went to at least two All-Star Games. So it’s important to consider which players will succeed in Year 1, but you’ll also want to find players you believe can become All-Stars in the long-term.
Now that you've got the basics down for betting the Rookie of the Year market, lets check out the MVP market.
Recommended Betting Sites
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Register with BETFRED50 First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply.Daily 'Super Extra Places' on RacingOdds Boosts on Next Goalscorer BetsSponsors all 5 Flat Horse Racing ClassicsBETFRED50Bonus CodeThe code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)Live StreamingIs there live streaming of sporting events?YesOur RatingGambling.com's rating of this betting site out of 10098Bet BuilderCan you create your own personalised bets?YesCash OutCan you cash out of bets before an event has finished?YesAcca InsuranceRefund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet downYesKnown as the 'Bonus King', Betfred has more promos and bonuses than the majority of betting sites. This is the first bookmaker ever to sponsor all five flat racing classics and also sponsors Super League Rugby and World Matchplay Darts.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Get a percentage boost on all football multibets of 4 or more selections. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Opt in & bet £10+ via mobile on any football market at 2.00+ odds within 7 days. No Cash out. Get 6x £5 Free Bets on selected markets. Free bets expire in 7 days. Card payments & Apple Pay only. T&Cs apply, see below. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Customers Only. Max one £20 Free Bet. Qualifying bets at Odds of 1/1(2.00) or greater. Paid as Bonus Token with Min 4/5(180) Odds Req. Skrill, Neteller & Paypal not eligible. T&Cs Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10+ at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x Free Bets: 2 x £10 Accas, 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Football, 25 x 40p Extra Spins on BetMGM Joker Cash Spree & 1 x £10 Reward Game. 7 day expiry. Max Live Casino winnings: 10x. Live Casino reward eligible on specific games. Stake not returned. 18+. Exclusions Apply. Full T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers online only. Eligibility restrictions apply. Only valid with code B10G40 on registration. £/€10 min qualifying bet at 1/1 (2.0) odds or greater across sports or racing (if EW then min £10 Win + £/€10 Place). Receive £/€20 Tote Credit, £/€10 Free Sports Bet and 50 Extra Spins on Big Bass Bonanza within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. 7-day expiry on free bets & Tote Credit. Your first bet will be your qualifying bet. One per customer. UK & ROI customers only. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. Gambleaware.org.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New members only. £10+ bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days on sportsbook only. 2x£5 Free Bets for Bet Builder only. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org 18+.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Min. $/€10 deposit and bet on odds 1/1 or greater required. Extra bets and bonus spins are issued within 24 hours of the qualifying bet being settled. Extra bet valid for 14 days, stake not returned. Bonus spins are valid for 24 hours, only available on the Book of Dead game. Terms and Conditions apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ New customers only. Opt in, deposit and bet £20+?on any sports market at minimum 1/1 odds within 7 days of registration. Get £20 in Free Bets for selected markets (No cash out) and 2x £10 Casino Bonus Funds for selected games (40x wagering. Max withdrawal £500). Bonuses expire in 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay Payments only. T&Cs apply. gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Available once per household. Max. FreeBet amount: £10 Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is: £10 Void/cancelled or cashed out bets do not count towards wagering to activate the free bet. Offer valid only to customers making a first deposit of £10 or more. Offer only applies to players who are residents of United Kingdom and Irland.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. This offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. Min Deposit: £10. Free Bet awarded: £10. 1 x £10 must be wagered at odds of 1.75+ to unlock Free Bet. Debit Card deposits only (exclusions apply). Free bet will expire 7 days after the 1st deposit. 18+. GambleAware.org. Bet The Responsible Way. Full Terms apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Min £10 deposit and bet on odds 1/1 or greater required. deposits via Paypal, Neteller, Pasafe, Skrill or Skrill 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer. Extra bet and bonus spins issued within 24 hours of quailfying bet being settled. Extra bet valid for 14 days, stake not returned. Bonus spins valid for 24 hours, selected games only.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. T&Cs apply.
- 16#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+. New customers only. Min. £10 deposit. 3x bonus WR. Bonus expires in 30 days. Payment, withdrawal, player, time restrictions apply. Terms Apply. Play responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New reg only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via ‘My Offers’ page within 30 days. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play, min odds 1/1 (2.0). Max. extra winnings £100. Once claimed, 30-day expiry. Cashed out, System & EW bets do not qualify. Other Promotional Play Restrictions Apply. T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Customers only. Must have a minimum of 3 bets of £10 or more on separate events at odds of evens (2.0) or bigger on first day. First day losses equals all settled stakes less all returns. T&C's apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New bettors; Code SPORT; Wager deposit & bonus 8x; Max qualifying bet stake=initial bonus; Valid 60 days; Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Qualifying bet of £10 at min. odds 2.0 within 5 days of registration, E/W excluded. Get 3x Free Bets at min odds 2.0 each. 1x£10 Football, 1x£10 Racing, 1x£10 Acca (Min 4 selections). 7-day expiry. New selected customers & 18+ only. Min. deposit of £10. Full T&Cs apply. Promotion available on desktop and web only and is not offered via the kwiff apps.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New 18+ New Customers only. Deposit and bet on any sports with min odds of 2.0. Get 50% Back of your first days' losses as a Free bet up to £50+£20 Casino Bonus. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Deposit and bet on any sportsbook markets of your choice at odds of evens (2.00) or greater. Get 50% back of your first days losses as a Free Bet up to £50 plus 50 Extra Spins. Min. 3 bets required. If your account is up, you’ll receive a £5 Free Bet regardless plus 10 Extra Spins. Use coupon code "5050" at registration. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only | GambleAware.org | Gamble Responsibly.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. £10 in real money. Bets placed on sports at odds of 2.00 ore more to qualify. Bets must be placed 24 hours within of registration. £10 free bets must be wagered on sports. Cashback is cash without restrictions. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ | New UK players only | Min deposit req. £10 | Certain deposit methods excluded | Place 1 sport bet (3+ selections) | Excl Horse Racing | Min stake £10 | Max stake £20 | Min Odds 2/1 (3.0) | Max FreeBet £20 for football only | FreeBet valid for 7 days | FreeBet stake not returned | T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. [Gambleaware.org|https://www.gambleaware.org/]. Get a percentage boost on all football multibets of 4 or more selections. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at at odds of Evens (2.0) or greater to qualify for three free bets on settlement: £10 on Football, £10 on Greyhound and £5 on Virtual Sports, plus 10 Extra Spins on Reel King. Free Bet & Spins expire in 7 days. Additional T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New members only. £10 min bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, placed & settled in 14 days of sign-up. Win part E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days on sportsbook only . Stake not returned. T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. BeGambleAware.org.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New UK+IRE Customers. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 1x £20 free bet. Free bet available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Cash back without wagering the day after if the player loses all the money in the account. Min deposit £10. Gameplay is monitored. Full T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of £30, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill deposits. Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers. Max £10 (exc. PayPal). 100% Odds Boost Token. Keep it fun - set your deposit limit. T&Cs apply. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 17.10.2022. 3x £10 free bets. Free bets expire after 30 days. New customers signing up through mobile or tablet device only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #ad - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible.
- 34#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. This promotion is for?new customers only. - Sign up using the promo code bet20get10?and make a minimum deposit of £20. - Place a minimum £20 cash bet at odds of Evens (2.0) or greater and receive a £10 Free Bet
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. T&Cs Apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers online only. Min Odds 3/1 (4.00), Min 3 Selections. Free Bet Valid For 7 Days
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players only. Max. Free Bet Token amount: £10.Minimum Deposit: £15. Minimum wagering on Sport to activate the Free Bet Token: £15
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £15 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at a min. odds of 1/1 (2.00) or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of £10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from receipt. Limited to 1 sport & 5 casino brand/s within the network. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply. Full Terms Apply. 18+ | BeGambleAware | #Ad.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £15, Max £10 Free Bet valid for 14 days. Bets Must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. Neteller, Skrill and PayPal not eligible. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Min stake £2. Min legs 3. Max win £1,000. Min odds 3.0. Max £25 back as a Free Bet on losing bets only. 7 days to use free bet at odds 2.0+. Full T and Cs apply. Play responsibly GambleAware?: Gambling Help & Gambling Addiction ? T&Cs apply - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Min £ 20 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £ 40, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Min £10 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 5x £5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet £10 on any EPL match (odds 1/1+) within 3 days of sign up. No cash-out. Get 5x£5 Free Bets for set markets (odds 1/1+) and a £5 Slots Bonus on Age of the Gods: God Of Storms, 30x wagering, max redeemable £125. Bonuses expire in 14 days. No cash-out. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ | New Customer Only – Promo Code: NEWWELCOME100 required | 50% back on net LOSSES over your first 3 calendar days | requires min 3 x£10 qualifying bets in same 3 days| Min return £1 free bet | T&Cs apply | Available until 01/09/24 at 23:59 | UK residents using debit card | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New player only, 1st deposit, min deposit £15, Max £15 Free Bet valid for 14 days, Bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller, Skrill and Payapl not eligible. T&C apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Place a qualifying £10 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater. Qualifying bet cannot be placed in-play or cashed out early. A first free £10 fixed odds bet will be credited upon settlement of the qualifying bet. The second free £10 fixed odds bets will be added to your account on the following day. Free bets must be claimed within 28 days of opening. Free bet stake not included in any winnings. T&Cs Apply.
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.