American Football Betting Strategy: Player Performance Markets
When it comes to American Football betting, it's easy to get bogged down in the strategy and overcomplicate your betting system. Where things are a little simpler (if not necessarily easier), however, are in the player performance markets.
Scorer Markets
The simplest of these markets is the 'scorers' market. The shortest odds are always on the wide receiver (usually the safest bet to score a touchdown), followed by the running backs, then any other player on the team. You'll usually find the longest odds available on the tight ends, as well as the quarterback. This is because he'll generally be the one feeding the passes out to the main scorers.
To give an example of the kind of odds to expect from the scorer markets, let's take a look at the matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals on 17th September 2013. Over at Coral Sports, the shortest first scorer odds were awarded to the wide-receiver of the favourite team, the Bengals. A.J. Green was rated 13/2 to score first or last, and 8/11 to score anytime. His opposite number at the Steelers, Antonio Brown, was rated at 10/1 to score first or last, and 6/4 to score anytime. The wide receivers, meanwhile, ranged from 8/1 - 12/1 to score first/last and 1/1 - 9/4 anytime.
Once you get into the stats, particularly later in the season, it makes more sense to move beyond the scorer market and look at American Football markets that cover the entire game. Of particular interest to stats fans are the 'pass yard' and 'receiving yards' markets''.
Pass Yards
Sticking with the Steelers at the Bengals as our example, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was rated 20/23 to notch up less than 245.5 pass yards. Given that the Steelers struggled in their previous outing at Tennessee, a match in which Big Ben racked up just 191 pass yards, and that his season average for 2012 was 251 yards/game, it seems like a reasonable bet.
Pass Success Rate / Interceptions
In addition to examining past performance when looking at the 'pass yard market', other stats worth examining are 'pass success rate' market and 'interceptions' market, which give you a better idea of the quality of a quarterback's passing: a trait that's as valuable as the strength of his arm.
Receptions
On the receiving end, Bengals wide receiver AJ Green was tipped to get over 90.5 receiving yards at 4/5, having registered an impressive 162 yards in the team's narrow loss to Chicago. The supporting stats of note here are receptions (passes caught) and receptions of 20+ yards; both of which are a good guide to consistency in the 'receiving yards' market.
The main drawback with these markets is the low odds. For the Steelers at the Bengals, none of the odds rose above 20/23. This is because the margins are so tight, and the stats are there for all to see. If you get really confident, and you're not averse to some risk, you can always build an accumulator to boost your odds by heading over to Bet365 Sports.
Recommended Betting Sites
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Register with BETFRED50 First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply.Daily 'Super Extra Places' on RacingOdds Boosts on Next Goalscorer BetsSponsors all 5 Flat Horse Racing ClassicsBETFRED50Bonus CodeThe code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)Live StreamingIs there live streaming of sporting events?YesOur RatingGambling.com's rating of this betting site out of 10098Bet BuilderCan you create your own personalised bets?YesCash OutCan you cash out of bets before an event has finished?YesAcca InsuranceRefund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet downYesKnown as the 'Bonus King', Betfred has more promos and bonuses than the majority of betting sites. This is the first bookmaker ever to sponsor all five flat racing classics and also sponsors Super League Rugby and World Matchplay Darts.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Get a percentage boost on all football multibets of 4 or more selections. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Opt in & bet £10+ via mobile on any football market at 2.00+ odds within 7 days. No Cash out. Get 6x £5 Free Bets on selected markets. Free bets expire in 7 days. Card payments & Apple Pay only. T&Cs apply, see below. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Customers Only. Max one £20 Free Bet. Qualifying bets at Odds of 1/1(2.00) or greater. Paid as Bonus Token with Min 4/5(180) Odds Req. Skrill, Neteller & Paypal not eligible. T&Cs Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10+ at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x Free Bets: 2 x £10 Accas, 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Football, 25 x 40p Extra Spins on BetMGM Joker Cash Spree & 1 x £10 Reward Game. 7 day expiry. Max Live Casino winnings: 10x. Live Casino reward eligible on specific games. Stake not returned. 18+. Exclusions Apply. Full T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers online only. Eligibility restrictions apply. Only valid with code B10G40 on registration. £/€10 min qualifying bet at 1/1 (2.0) odds or greater across sports or racing (if EW then min £10 Win + £/€10 Place). Receive £/€20 Tote Credit, £/€10 Free Sports Bet and 50 Extra Spins on Big Bass Bonanza within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. 7-day expiry on free bets & Tote Credit. Your first bet will be your qualifying bet. One per customer. UK & ROI customers only. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. Gambleaware.org.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New members only. £10+ bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days on sportsbook only. 2x£5 Free Bets for Bet Builder only. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org 18+.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Min. $/€10 deposit and bet on odds 1/1 or greater required. Extra bets and bonus spins are issued within 24 hours of the qualifying bet being settled. Extra bet valid for 14 days, stake not returned. Bonus spins are valid for 24 hours, only available on the Book of Dead game. Terms and Conditions apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ New customers only. Opt in, deposit and bet £20+?on any sports market at minimum 1/1 odds within 7 days of registration. Get £20 in Free Bets for selected markets (No cash out) and 2x £10 Casino Bonus Funds for selected games (40x wagering. Max withdrawal £500). Bonuses expire in 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay Payments only. T&Cs apply. gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Available once per household. Max. FreeBet amount: £10 Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is: £10 Void/cancelled or cashed out bets do not count towards wagering to activate the free bet. Offer valid only to customers making a first deposit of £10 or more. Offer only applies to players who are residents of United Kingdom and Irland.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. This offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. Min Deposit: £10. Free Bet awarded: £10. 1 x £10 must be wagered at odds of 1.75+ to unlock Free Bet. Debit Card deposits only (exclusions apply). Free bet will expire 7 days after the 1st deposit. 18+. GambleAware.org. Bet The Responsible Way. Full Terms apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Min £10 deposit and bet on odds 1/1 or greater required. deposits via Paypal, Neteller, Pasafe, Skrill or Skrill 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer. Extra bet and bonus spins issued within 24 hours of quailfying bet being settled. Extra bet valid for 14 days, stake not returned. Bonus spins valid for 24 hours, selected games only.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. T&Cs apply.
- 16#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+. New customers only. Min. £10 deposit. 3x bonus WR. Bonus expires in 30 days. Payment, withdrawal, player, time restrictions apply. Terms Apply. Play responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New reg only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via ‘My Offers’ page within 30 days. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play, min odds 1/1 (2.0). Max. extra winnings £100. Once claimed, 30-day expiry. Cashed out, System & EW bets do not qualify. Other Promotional Play Restrictions Apply. T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Customers only. Must have a minimum of 3 bets of £10 or more on separate events at odds of evens (2.0) or bigger on first day. First day losses equals all settled stakes less all returns. T&C's apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New bettors; Code SPORT; Wager deposit & bonus 8x; Max qualifying bet stake=initial bonus; Valid 60 days; Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Qualifying bet of £10 at min. odds 2.0 within 5 days of registration, E/W excluded. Get 3x Free Bets at min odds 2.0 each. 1x£10 Football, 1x£10 Racing, 1x£10 Acca (Min 4 selections). 7-day expiry. New selected customers & 18+ only. Min. deposit of £10. Full T&Cs apply. Promotion available on desktop and web only and is not offered via the kwiff apps.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New 18+ New Customers only. Deposit and bet on any sports with min odds of 2.0. Get 50% Back of your first days' losses as a Free bet up to £50+£20 Casino Bonus. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Deposit and bet on any sportsbook markets of your choice at odds of evens (2.00) or greater. Get 50% back of your first days losses as a Free Bet up to £50 plus 50 Extra Spins. Min. 3 bets required. If your account is up, you’ll receive a £5 Free Bet regardless plus 10 Extra Spins. Use coupon code "5050" at registration. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only | GambleAware.org | Gamble Responsibly.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. £10 in real money. Bets placed on sports at odds of 2.00 ore more to qualify. Bets must be placed 24 hours within of registration. £10 free bets must be wagered on sports. Cashback is cash without restrictions. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ | New UK players only | Min deposit req. £10 | Certain deposit methods excluded | Place 1 sport bet (3+ selections) | Excl Horse Racing | Min stake £10 | Max stake £20 | Min Odds 2/1 (3.0) | Max FreeBet £20 for football only | FreeBet valid for 7 days | FreeBet stake not returned | T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. [Gambleaware.org|https://www.gambleaware.org/]. Get a percentage boost on all football multibets of 4 or more selections. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at at odds of Evens (2.0) or greater to qualify for three free bets on settlement: £10 on Football, £10 on Greyhound and £5 on Virtual Sports, plus 10 Extra Spins on Reel King. Free Bet & Spins expire in 7 days. Additional T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New members only. £10 min bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, placed & settled in 14 days of sign-up. Win part E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days on sportsbook only . Stake not returned. T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. BeGambleAware.org.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New UK+IRE Customers. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 1x £20 free bet. Free bet available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Cash back without wagering the day after if the player loses all the money in the account. Min deposit £10. Gameplay is monitored. Full T&Cs apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of £30, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill deposits. Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers. Max £10 (exc. PayPal). 100% Odds Boost Token. Keep it fun - set your deposit limit. T&Cs apply. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 17.10.2022. 3x £10 free bets. Free bets expire after 30 days. New customers signing up through mobile or tablet device only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #ad - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible.
- 34#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. This promotion is for?new customers only. - Sign up using the promo code bet20get10?and make a minimum deposit of £20. - Place a minimum £20 cash bet at odds of Evens (2.0) or greater and receive a £10 Free Bet
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. T&Cs Apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. gambleaware.org. T&C Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers online only. Min Odds 3/1 (4.00), Min 3 Selections. Free Bet Valid For 7 Days
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players only. Max. Free Bet Token amount: £10.Minimum Deposit: £15. Minimum wagering on Sport to activate the Free Bet Token: £15
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £15 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at a min. odds of 1/1 (2.00) or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of £10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from receipt. Limited to 1 sport & 5 casino brand/s within the network. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply. Full Terms Apply. 18+ | BeGambleAware | #Ad.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £15, Max £10 Free Bet valid for 14 days. Bets Must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. Neteller, Skrill and PayPal not eligible. T&Cs apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers only. Min stake £2. Min legs 3. Max win £1,000. Min odds 3.0. Max £25 back as a Free Bet on losing bets only. 7 days to use free bet at odds 2.0+. Full T and Cs apply. Play responsibly GambleAware?: Gambling Help & Gambling Addiction ? T&Cs apply - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Min £ 20 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £ 40, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Players Only. Min £10 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 5x £5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions. - Full Terms Apply
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet £10 on any EPL match (odds 1/1+) within 3 days of sign up. No cash-out. Get 5x£5 Free Bets for set markets (odds 1/1+) and a £5 Slots Bonus on Age of the Gods: God Of Storms, 30x wagering, max redeemable £125. Bonuses expire in 14 days. No cash-out. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. 18+ | New Customer Only – Promo Code: NEWWELCOME100 required | 50% back on net LOSSES over your first 3 calendar days | requires min 3 x£10 qualifying bets in same 3 days| Min return £1 free bet | T&Cs apply | Available until 01/09/24 at 23:59 | UK residents using debit card | Please gamble responsibly
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New player only, 1st deposit, min deposit £15, Max £15 Free Bet valid for 14 days, Bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller, Skrill and Payapl not eligible. T&C apply.
- #ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Place a qualifying £10 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater. Qualifying bet cannot be placed in-play or cashed out early. A first free £10 fixed odds bet will be credited upon settlement of the qualifying bet. The second free £10 fixed odds bets will be added to your account on the following day. Free bets must be claimed within 28 days of opening. Free bet stake not included in any winnings. T&Cs Apply.
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.