ALCS Best Bets, Odds, Picks, Predictions & Over/Under Bets for Rangers vs Astros Game 1
Rangers vs Astros Game 1 Odds, Predictions & Over/Under Bets
- ? Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks (-105) at BetMGM
- ? José Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) at FanDuel
- ? Rangers vs. Astros Under 9 Runs (-120) at Draftkings
Tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET, the opening match of the ALCS between the Rangers and the Astros will take place at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
This clash between two AL West rivals marks the start of a decisive seven-game series to determine the American League's representative in the World Series.
As the defending World Series champions, the Astros enter Game 1 as the favorites, with the legendary Justin Verlander leading their charge.
As for the Rangers, they have defied expectations with a perfect 5-0 record in the postseason, having triumphed as underdogs against both the Rays and Orioles.
Now let's look at our top betting picks for Game 1 of the Astros vs. Rangers matchup.
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ALCS Best Bets: Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks (-105)
? Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks (-105) at BetMGM
Justin Verlander has struggled recently, casting doubt on his reputation. In his last three playoff appearances, he posted a 4.40 ERA, albeit partly due to facing the weak-hitting New York Yankees in the previous postseason.
Despite my optimism for the Rangers in this game, another betting opportunity stands out. Verlander, now 40, has exhibited regression, notably in his walk rate, reaching 6.7%—his highest since 2017.
His regular season ended with three walks against Arizona, followed by three in his recent scoreless Game 1 outing against the Twins. Across his last three playoff starts, he's issued nine walks consistently.
Texas ranked fifth in walk rate this season, drawing walks in over 13% of their postseason plate appearances.
Expect Verlander's control problems to persist, especially against a patient Texas team, likely leading to multiple walks.
? Best ALCS Picks: Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks (-105) at BetMGM
ALCS Best Bets: José Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
? José Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) at FanDuel
José Abreu demonstrated his power with three home runs in the Astros' ALDS victory against the Twins.
He's slated to face a left-handed pitcher on Sunday, excelling historically against southpaws since August 1, maintaining an xwOBA over .400 and hitting five homers, tops on the team.
Jordan Montgomery, though known as a ground-ball pitcher, held a 43.8% groundball rate this season, with a Hard-Hit Rate ranking in the 59th percentile.
Abreu may find opportunities for extra-base hits or home runs. Montgomery conceded 18 home runs in the regular season.
Despite the Rangers' limited use of left-handed relievers, their bullpen had a 4.32 xFIP from August 1 onward, with a 9.2% walk rate. This could strain their bullpen and offer Abreu more plate appearances.
Abreu appears poised for a strong offensive performance against Montgomery, making him a player to watch on Sunday.
? Best ALCS Picks: José Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) at FanDuel
ALCS Best Bets: Rangers vs. Astros Under 9 Runs
? Rangers vs. Astros Under 9 Runs (-120) at Draftkings
Jordan Montgomery has thrived with the Rangers, thanks to remarkable command.
Since August 1st, he's posted a superb 1.73 BB/9 rate, a low 0.80 HR/9 rate, and a solid 101 Location+ rating.
His ability to induce ground balls has been key, raising his groundball rate from 44% with the Cardinals to 49% in Texas. In a game against the Astros, he achieved an impressive 68.4% ground-ball rate, yielding only two runs in six innings.
Justin Verlander, with over 200 postseason innings, maintains a respectable 3.82 xFIP throughout his career. Although not at Cy Young level, he ended this season with a 3.66 xERA and had solid recent starts.
In a September 6th encounter, he went seven innings, conceding two runs in a 12-3 Astros win against the Rangers.
Verlander, in top form, can potentially stifle the Rangers once again meaning this one could well turn out to be something of a pitching duel.
? Best ALCS Picks: Rangers vs. Astros Under 9 Runs (-120) at Draftkings
As the 2023 MLB postseason hots up, there's another exciting development for sports betting enthusiasts. As of September 28, Kentucky launched online sports betting, paving the way for the emergence of new Kentucky betting apps. This opens up a new realm of opportunities for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned for more updates on this front.
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