India v Sri Lanka Third ODI: Expert Predictions & Analysis
India v Sri Lanka predictions:
- India highest opening partnership - 1.66 @ Rajabets Sports
- Pathum Nissanka over 24.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
- Kuldeep Yadav over 1.5 wickets - 1.80 @ Rajabets Sports
When: Wednesday 7 August, 2:30pm IST
Where: R. Premadasa Stadium, Colombo
Watch: Sony Ten Sports, SonyLIV
Best Odds: India 1.3, Sri Lanka 3.5
India’s winning streak of three in bilateral ODI series came to an end at the hands of a vastly undermanned Sri Lanka bowling attack in Colombo on Sunday, with a comprehensive 32-run win giving the host nation an unassailable 1-0 lead.
Despite India failing to win both games of this series so far, Indian cricket betting sites have barely shifted the odds at all for this third and final match, still grading the India side as near-unbackable favourites for this particular game.
We’ll be hoping to take advantage of the uniformity in odds across the series to repeat our winning selection from the previous match, whilst also using some series form to attack a couple of player markets offered by our preferred betting sites in India.
The Numbers That Matter
- The average run rate in Colombo ODIs this year is 4.78rpo (377 overs)
- India hit the most sixes in five of their last six ODIs against Sri Lanka
- Axar Patel to Sadeera Samarawickrama in this series: 2-2 from 19 balls
- Asitha Fernando averages 58 balls and 55 runs per wicket in ODIs
Let’s keep a good thing going!
When considering the enormous gulf in output between the two team’s opening partnerships in this series and beyond, it does come as a great surprise that the odds have not shifted for India to record the larger opening stand for the third consecutive time.
Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill were the most prolific opening partnership of last year’s World Cup with 475 runs at an average of 52.78 and have made those numbers look miniscule with stands of 75 and 97, the latter of which came at a blistering run rate of 7.18rpo.
They exceeded Sri Lanka’s opening partnership by 97 runs on Sunday and 68 on Friday, thanks to individual failures from Avishka Fernando and Pathum Nissanka.
Sri Lanka have registered six consecutive opening stands of fewer than ten runs against India in this format, and whilst there’s every chance of them both putting it together here, the trends suggest that India’s odds to ‘win’ this matchup should be much shorter.
Prediction: India highest opening partnership - 1.66 @ Rajabets Sports
Nissanka’s failure a one-off
A meek and flat-footed poke at a Mohammed Siraj outswinger brought Pathum Nissanka’s second ODI to an end as quickly as it started, and it’s a mistake that he’s likely to learn from immediately.
That’s because he almost always does bounce back straight after a low score.
In fact, across his 37 ODI innings since the beginning of 2023, in which he has been the world’s leading run scorer with 1704 at an average of 50, there were just two occasions in which Nissanka failed to clear the 24.5 run over/under mark set by cricket betting sites in consecutive matches.
He has a two-thirds success rate in scoring 25+ runs during that period, so we’re expecting to witness more of what we saw in the first game of the series (56 from 75 balls) and less of the second, particularly as he has been dismissed just once by the trio of Kuldeep, Axar and Washington Sundar at an average of 37.
Prediction: Pathum Nissanka over 24.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
Kuldeep weaving webs of magic again
He has been used as India’s fifth or sixth bowler in both games of the series so far, but as spin continues to dominate this matchup, we’re anticipating that Kuldeep Yadav is just getting started after his two-wicket haul on Sunday.
He has amassed an enormous 75 dot balls already across 20 overs, but more importantly his 2-33 on Sunday took his ODI numbers against Sri Lanka to 21 wickets at a bowling strike rate of exactly 30, which equates to two wickets every ten overs.
Kuldeep takes 2+ wickets against Sri Lanka in 64% of ODIs in which he bowls at least five overs, whilst on Sri Lankan soil he has five 2+ wicket hauls from nine innings of such length.
Many of Sri Lanka’s middle order batters such as Charith Asalanka and Sadeera Samarawickrama were forced to read his variations off the pitch, and on a fresh surface for this game he should be able to get a bit more speed and reduce their available reaction time.
He also has a reputation in some circles for working his way into a series, demonstrated by an outstanding eight instances of taking 2+ wickets in the third game of his last nine ODI series.
Prediction: Kuldeep Yadav over 1.5 wickets - 1.80 @ Rajabets Sports
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.
