How to Pick a Grand National Winner: Five Betting Strategies For The Aintree Showpiece
The Grand National remains the biggest race of the entire year for both punters and betting sites.
To help you pick a winner in the iconic Aintree showpiece, we’ve listed five betting strategies below, informed by the strongest Grand National trends.
1. Only Strong Stayers & Sound Jumpers Need Apply
This may sound obvious but at over four miles and two furlongs in length, the Grand National is the longest race any horse is likely to run in its lifetime, so the ability to draw on stamina reserves is crucial.
Non-stayers don’t win Grand Nationals, so when you're browsing the odds at your favourite horse racing betting site, we advise you to focus on horses that have already excelled over distances of at least three miles.
The Grand National might not be the jumping test it once was, but it’s still a stiff examination of a horse’s ability to jump a steeplechase fence.
With that in mind, horses who have the letter ‘F’ (Fell) in their form figures should generally be avoided.
There will always be the odd exception to any rule but for the most part, you need a horse that has proved it can jump soundly in the heat of a big-field contest.
2. Prioritise Horses That Can Get Into a Rhythm on or Near The Pace
The Grand National has become a race in which it is very hard to come from a long way back.
The reasons for this vary but the nature of the fences and the amount of traffic mean that it’s hard for horses that have sat back to build the momentum required to close in on the leaders.
Connections of Corach Rambler cottoned on to this factor in 2023 when he was ridden a lot closer to the pace than expected. He was also able to get into a good rhythm, something that is crucial in this unique race.
The key here is to focus on horses that have the cruising speed to sit handy enough in these big-field races.
Before selecting your runner, we recommend watching videos of their previous runs.
You could also examine the ‘close-up’ comments available on sites like the Racing Post. These indicate where a horse was positioned during each race.
Read More: Get the latest Grand National odds for the big race
3. Don’t Dwell on Previous Winners
Before confirming your selection at your favourite betting app, consider the fact that previous winners have a poor record in this race.
Tiger Roll (2018 & 2019) is an obvious recent exception, but to put his achievement into context, he was the first back-to-back winner since Red Rum in 1973 and 1974.
The reason? Well, as ever there are multiple factors at play...
The main one is that Grand National winners nearly always have to try and win the race for a second time off a much higher mark than the previous year.
Luck also plays a huge part. So much needs to go right for a horse to win a Grand National, it would require an unusually large dollop of fortune for a horse to get the same run twice.
4. Weight Matters
Despite all the changes to the Grand National in recent years, it remains very difficult to carry a big weight to victory.
No topweight has won the National since Red Rum in 1974 and only two horses have carried more than 11st to victory in the last decade. The biggest weight carried to victory since 1974 is the 11st 9lb carried by Many Clouds in 2015.
Since the turn of the century, the National has been won by a horse carrying less than 11st a remarkable 16 times.
That tells us that it remains important to focus on runners in the bottom half of the handicap.
Read More: Get Grand National free bets for the Aintree showpiece
5. Steer Clear of Horses That Had a Hard Race at The Cheltenham Festival
Preparation is everything when it comes to winning a Grand National.
With that in mind, having a gruelling race less than a month before can often put paid to a horse’s chance of glory at Aintree.
For the most part, hard races at Cheltenham leave their mark on an Aintree contender. It’s a point that goes a long way to explaining why no horse has won the Gold Cup and Grand National in the same year since Golden Miller in 1934.
As with any rule, there will always be an exception, and we don’t have to look far to find one.
Corach Rambler didn’t have an easy time of it when beating Fastorslow in the 2023 Ultima Handicap Chase, but it didn’t stop him cruising to glory at Aintree the following month.
2024 Grand National: Which Horse Best Fits The Trends?
The standout trends candidate is VANILLIER, who ran so well to finish second 12 months ago.
He remains handily weighted (10st 11lb) despite a 4lb higher mark this time. He avoided Cheltenham and connections will surely look to ride him further forward this time given he was asked to make up so much ground last year.
We know he’s got the class and cruising speed to sit handy and he’s been trained to peak for this day. He has a massive chance.
Now you know how to pick a Grand National winner, don't forget to make use of free bets and other offers to boost your profits.
Recommended Betting Sites
- 18+. T&C ApplyUp To 100% Combo Bet BoosterForecasts & Tournaments with Cash Prizes6-Tier Sports VIP Programnot requiredBonus CodeThe code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)Live StreamingIs there live streaming of sporting events?YesOur RatingGambling.com's rating of this betting site out of 100Bet BuilderCan you create your own personalised bets?NoCash OutCan you cash out of bets before an event has finished?NoAcca InsuranceRefund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet downNoTonyBet provides bettors in Ireland with an attractive and uncomplicated dual betting site and casino platform which can be accessed using their impressive Android and iOS mobile app.
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 318+ T&C's Apply
- 418+. T&C Apply. Promo code: PRIBET100
- 18+. T&C's Apply.
- 6*New members. Min €10 deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtual), placed & settled within 14 days of sign-up. Min odds EVS; win part e/w bet only. Free Bets: valid 7 days on sportsbook. Stakes not returned. T&Cs apply. Click here for full T&Cs. Bet Responsibly. Gamblingcare.ie. 18+
- New customers online only. Eligibility restrictions apply. Only valid with code B10G40 on registration. £/€10 min qualifying bet at 1/1 (2.0) odds or greater across sports or racing (if EW then min £10 Win + £/€10 Place). Receive £/€20 Tote Credit, £/€10 Free Sports Bet and 50 Free Spins on Big Bass Bonanza within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. 7-day expiry on free bets & Tote Credit. Your first bet will be your qualifying bet. One per customer. UK & ROI customers only. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. Gambleaware.org.
- 18+ New customers only. Opt in, place your first bet of €10 or more on any sports market. Get up to a €60 match in Free Bets. Offer available until 23:59 IST on 31.12.2024. Free bets expire after 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. gamblingcare.ie | Please gamble responsibly
- 918+ T&C's Apply
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 1118+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. T&C's apply.
- 1218+. T&C Apply
- New bettors; Code SPORT; Wager deposit & bonus 8x; Max qualifying bet stake=initial bonus; Valid 60 days; Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply; T&C apply; 18+
- IRE/NI new customers only. Min Deposit €/£10. Min stake €/£10. Min odds Evs. Free Bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. Free Bets expire in 7 days. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP address only. Account & Payment method restrictions. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&Cs apply.
- 1518+. T&C Apply
- 1618+. T&C Apply
- 1718+ T&C's Apply
- 1818+, New Customers Only, Play Responsibly, T&C Apply.
- 18+ New customers only. Opt in & bet up to €50 (min. €20) on any sports at 2.00+ odds within 7 days. No Cash out. Get up to 2x €25 in free bets. Bonuses expire in 7 days. Card payments & Apple Pay only. T&Cs apply. http://gamblingcare.ie | Please gamble responsibly
- 18+. Promo Code: ZB100S. T&C's Apply.
- 2118+. T&C Apply
- 18+. New Customers only, Min deposit €20. min odds 1.5. T &Cs apply.
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 24Qualifying bet of €10 at min. odds 2.0 within 5 days of registration, E/W excluded. Get 3x Free Bets at min odds 2.0 each. 1x€10 Football, 1x€10 Racing, 1x€10 Acca (Min 4 selections). 7-day expiry. New selected customers & 18+ only. Min. deposit of €10. Full T&Cs apply.
- 18+. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of $/€10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: $/€200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill deposits. Full Terms Apply.
- 2618+ T&C's Apply
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 2818+. T&C Apply
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 3018+. T&C Apply
- 18+. New customers only. Min deposit €10, maximum bonus that can be awarded in this promotion is €100. T&C's apply.
- The Casino accepts strictly adult players (the minimum age is 18) and players who have reached the age specified by the jurisdiction of player’s place of residence as eligible for online gaming.
- 18+ Ts&Cs Apply
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 3518+ T&C's Apply
- 18+ Play Safe. New customers using Promo code BB40 only. Min €10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 4 x €10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 7 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. See full terms below. gamblingtherapy.org
- 3718+. New Depositors Only. Min. Dep: €10. Max Bonus €100 + 10 Spins on Book of Dead. The welcome offer requires 1 deposit. Welcome bonus must be used within 14 days or it expires. spins expire after 24h. Bonus subject to 9x wagering with min. Odds 2.00 per single bet or 1.40 per combo bet selection. Spins subject to 35x wagering
- 18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply
- 3918+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: €10, max €10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
- 18+. New Players Only. Min £10 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply.
- Welcome Bonus Bet - Bet €10 Get €15 terms. This offer is for new sports customers only and is available once per household. Max. Bonus Bet amount €15. Minimum wagering on the sport to activate the Bonus Bet is €10 (which can be achieved from a Min deposit of €10). Offer valid only to customers wagering on sport €10 or more and make a qualifying bet in accordance with the Bonus Bet Specific Terms and Conditions below. 1st Place Prize: €1000. Prizes granted up to 48h after the tournament ends. Bonus Bet does not contribute towards the leaderboard. Click to see full T&Cs
- 42Min. bet €10 to receive €20 Free Bet (placed 10 days from registration). Min. odds of 1.6. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 10 days.
- 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. Full T&Cs Apply.
- 18+. T&C's apply
- 4518+. T&C Apply
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 18+. T&C's apply
- 18+. T&C Apply
- New ROI customers only. Min Deposit: €5. Maximum Free Bet: €50. Overall odds: 1.50 (1/2) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 50 Bonus Spins credited on placement of qualifying bet. 50x bonus wagering applies as do weighting requirements. Bonus Spins only available on selected games. Debit card deposits only. Offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. 18+ GamblingCare.ie.
- 18+. T&C Apply
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.