Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?
The Ballon d'Or award had been a two-horse race for much of 2024. That was until Rodri was named as player of the tournament at Euro 2024, helping Spain to a fourth European Championship triumph.
Vinicius Junior continues to lead the way on the best betting sites, but Rodri and Jude Bellingham are not too far behind on the betting market.
Bellingham was a runner-up at Euro 2024 and his England side were just 90 minutes away from a first ever European Championship title, while Vinicius Junior bowed out of Copa America with Brazil at the quarter-final stage.
Which of the triumvirate will land the prestigious award in October?
Despite Brazil's premature exit from Copa America, UK bookmakers still have the winger as the narrow favourite to go on and win the main gong that Lionel Messi claimed for an eighth time in his career in 2023.
We take a look at the market that has been dominated by Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who look likely to drop out of the top three after almost two decades of success in the award.
A number of bookmakers have updated their 2024 Ballon d’Or betting markets with many players still hoping to win the award.
Ballon d'Or 2024 Odds
Footballer | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
Vinicius Jr | 5/4 | 44.4% |
Rodri | 6/4 | 40% |
Jude Bellingham | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Dani Carvajal | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Lamine Yamal | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Lionel Messi | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Kylian Mbappe | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Toni Kroos | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Phil Foden | 50/1 | 2% |
Harry Kane | 50/1 | 2% |
Erling Haaland | 66/1 | 1.5% |
Vinicius Junior Still Leads The Way
Vinicius d'Or was the 8/15 favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or after being in the right place at the right time to score Real Madrid's second goal to seal a 2-0 win over Dortmund in the Champions League final at Wembley.
But after a lacklustre Copa America campaign with Brazil, the 24-year-old has drifted back out to 5/4.
The winger was very much in Bellingham’s shadow during the domestic season and was a 25/1 shot back in April, but he still heads the market on new betting sites to land the prestigious accolade largely down to his performances for Real Madrid.
Rodri Surges Up The Market
Rodri reminded everyone of his ability to score crucial goals when scoring the equaliser that set his country on their way to a 4-1 win over Georgia in the round of 16 at Euro 2024.
The Spanish midfielder was available at 10/1 heading into the final, and despite playing just 45 minutes against England, he was named player of the tournament as Spain were crowned champions of Europe.
The 28-year-old has also enjoyed another successful campaign with Manchester City, playing a crucial role as they were crowned Premier League champions for a fourth successive year.
As a result of his success this summer, Rodri is now just 6/4 to win the Ballon d'Or.
Bellingham Misses Out On Fairytale Ending
Jude Bellingham (7/1) scored two of England's eight goals at Euro 2024 including a wonderful overhead kick in the dying seconds of their round of 16 tie with Slovakia.
England went on to win 2-1 and after the game, Bellingham was asked who writes his scripts. He replied: "I do."
There is no doubting his ability and confidence in his own talent and to attempt the audacious overhead kick highlighted that.
The 21-year-old, who was named Champions League young player of the season, scored 23 goals in 42 appearances for Los Blancos last term as Carlo Ancelotti's side claimed the title.
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Kroos Drifts After Germany Exit
Toni Kroos' club career came to a close at Wembley as he helped Real Madrid beat Dortmund in the final of the Champions League.
It was his sixth winners' medal in that competition and he has retired as one of the most decorated players in European football.
This resulted in the midfielder shortening to become the 9/1 third favourite on betting apps behind his two team-mates.
However, as Germany were knocked out of Euro 2024 in the quarter-finals by Spain, the 34-year-old is a 40/1 shot to win the accolade.
Mbappe Ballon d’Or Odds Begin To Drift
Kylian Mbappe is now way down the ladder in the race for the Ballon d’Or and it’s not hard to see why.
The Champions League was the ultimate ambition for him with PSG, but a 2-0 aggregate defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the semi-finals ended their chances of European glory.
Mbappe has already won the World Cup with France, but that triumph was only good enough to earn him the 2018 Kopa Trophy. Had France beaten Argentina in the 2022 final then he would surely have won the Ballon d’Or ahead of Messi.
The French forward is now preparing for his first season at Real Madrid, which will significantly improve Mbappe's chances of winning future Ballon d'Or awards.
If you think Mbappe can hit the ground running for Real Madrid next season, then now is the time to back him at 33/1 for this year's Ballon d'Or on football betting sites.
England Run Gave Kane A Glimmer
Just when we were beginning to write Harry Kane's chances of winning the Ballon d'Or off, he popped up with a crucial penalty for England in their semi-final clash with the Netherlands.
He still had a lot of work to do to close the gap on the market leaders, but after losing out to Spain in the final at Euro 2024, his chances of winning the award are now slim.
It was commendable that Kane stayed at Tottenham as long as he did but the voting process for the Ballon d’Or used to heavily favour trophies, and still does to a big extent.
Now at Bayern Munich, Kane missed out on a Bundesliga title in his debut season and was minutes away from making a Champions League final. But he was named in the competition's best XI for the season.
Despite floundering in the race for the title, Kane dominated on a goalscoring front and he remains 50/1 for the personal accolade.
He never once got into the top three of the Ballon d’Or votes while at Spurs, but with 44 goals in 45 matches for Bayern Munich, 2024 could still offer plenty.
Haaland Odds Reflect Voting Issues
Erling Haaland is, by most people’s reckoning, the most fearsome footballer on the planet. He is a deadly finisher, can lead the line on his own, and is a terror for defenders.
He has never won the Ballon d’Or and hasn’t even come close to winning the Kopa Trophy.
There are a few reasons for this. The first is that he will almost certainly never achieve the international success that Messi, Ronaldo and previous winners like Fabio Cannavaro and Luis Figo enjoyed in their careers.
Haaland isn’t winning a World Cup, European Championship or Nations League with Norway.
The second is he’s at Manchester City. The vote of 100 journalists (cut from 170) usually focuses more on the continent. City aren’t looked upon favourably elsewhere in Europe purely because of their financial clout.
Haaland won the treble in the 2022/23 season and still didn’t pick up the 2023 award because Messi won the World Cup.
After losing out to Real Madrid in the last eight of the Champions League and Manchester United in the FA Cup final, Haaland’s odds have drifted way out to 66/1.
Best Of The Rest
The Spanish duo of Dani Carvajal and Lamine Yamal are two new names to have risen dramatically in the Ballon d'Or market.
Carvajal is 14/1 to win the award after winning a La Liga and Champions League double with Real Madrid before playing a huge role in Spain's European Championship win.
As for Yamal (20/1), he had a breakthrough season at Barcelona and although he did not enjoy any domestic success this term, the 17-year-old was crowned young player of the tournament at Euro 2024 after bagging one goal and four assists.
It would be a big surprise if Messi (25/1) won this trophy once more in his career but there’s a slim chance of that happening in 2024.
Argentina won a 16th Copa America title this summer and despite the forward being reduced to tears as he limped off injured in the final, there is talk of a ninth Ballon d’Or.
In reality he might just sneak into the top three, his odds boosted slightly after England failed to win the European Championship this summer.
Elsewhere, Phil Foden (40/1), Man City team-mate Kevin de Bruyne (100/1) and Cristiano Ronaldo (100/1) are also on the list of possible candidates to land the prestigious award.
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